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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
335 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Discussion... 
the middle and upper level ridge over southeast Texas early this afternoon will 
move east of the forecast area tonight as a trough deepens over 
The Rockies. A surface to 850 mb high pressure ridge will help 
keep a cap in place over the next few days. The cap will likely 
keep rain out of the forecast area through the day on Tuesday. It 
will also help to keep the smoke and haze from the Mexican fires 
overhead through at least Monday if not into Tuesday. Above normal 
daytime high and nighttime low temperatures are expected through 
Tuesday as well. 


A fairly deep upper trough will then push across the state on 
Tuesday and early Wednesday. A consensus of the models shows that 
thunderstorms that develop along the dry line ahead of the trough 
on Tuesday should affect at least the northern counties of the 
forecast area Tuesday evening. Model forecast sounding profiles 
then show the air mass increasing in moisture with precipitable water/S reaching 
1.7 to 1.9 inches between 06z and 18z Wednesday...and 
destabilizing with lapse rates and convective available potential energy increasing. Expect that 
the best thunderstorm chances will occur north of Interstate 10 
late Tuesday night and over the remainder of the area on 
Wednesday. As explained on the early morning discussion...expect a 
boundary to linger and rain chances to persist into Wednesday 
evening. Drier air behind the system will help diminish the 
overnight low temperatures slightly during the latter part of the 
week. 


40 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure off the coast of Florida along with low pressure 
over the plains will allow for moderate onshore flow through 
early next week. The gradient will tighten a bit on Sunday and 
slightly higher wind speeds are possible Sunday. 43 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1204 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Discussion... 
see 18z aviation discussion. 


Aviation... 
other than reduced visibility at times from smoke...generally VFR 
conds expected through 05z. Moisture beneath the cap will allow 
MVFR ceilings to develop again. Leaned toward persistence once again 
with MVFR ceilings overnight and mixing out between 15-16z. Gradient 
looks tighter on Sunday so will add a gust group. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Houston (iah) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Galveston (gls) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...small craft should exercise caution through late tonight for the 
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship 
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to 
Freeport 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...40 
aviation/marine...43