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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
741 am CDT sun may 19 2013 




Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings lifting to around 2000ft already this morning and cloud 
streets starting to form in the west. Expect MVFR ceilings to end by 
16z and gusty south-southeast winds to 25kts most of the day. MVFR ceilings return 
tonight between 02-05z first near the coast and then expanding 
north. 
45 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 445 am CDT sun may 19 2013/ 


Discussion... 
currently mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the middle 70s can 
be observed across southeast Texas. Sunday should be another warm 
day as early morning clouds begin to burn off. Expecting highs in 
the lower 90s in most areas with College Station toping out near 
95 degrees. Not much change is expected on Monday as warm and dry 
conditions persist. 


By Tuesday the next system will begin to approach our area. The 
upper level trough currently located in the western United States 
will begin to close off and allow for vorticity to rotate around 
with the trough axis. The GFS has consistently been the most 
aggressive bringing a wide swath of positive vorticity advection across our area Tuesday 
night into Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) has the upper level low centered 
slightly more towards the north and therefore has the greater 
precipitation totals northwards as well. Either way widespread warm air advection and 
positive vorticity advection spells the chance of precipitation across the area. Forecast soundings 
reveal that the cap currently at 850mb will begin to erode 
Tuesday. Cape values are around 2000 j/kg with lifted indice's approaching 
-7. Still not completely confident shortwave cooling will be able 
to erase the cap but forecast soundings do support some strong 
storms. 


On Thursday the upper level system will begin to exit and allow 
for an upper level high to establish itself over the area. Chances 
of rain will depend upon the placement of the ridge as 
disturbances move up and around the upper level high. 23 


Marine... 
moderate onshore flow will continue through Monday and will go ahead 
with scec for all but the 20-60nm waters where will go with 
Small Craft Advisory...winds may diminish slightly this afternoon there but return 
overnight. 


45 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Houston (iah) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Galveston (gls) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 7 PM CDT this evening 
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay... 
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 
nm...waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the 
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship 
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to 
Freeport 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...23 
aviation/marine...45