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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
620 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Discussion... 
see the 12z aviation discussion below. 


40 


&& 


Aviation... 
a weak surface boundary will likely become a source for 
thunderstorm development during the afternoon over the northern 
counties. Expect that the best thunderstorm chances will occur 
over kcll and kuts...and to a lesser extent at kcxo and kiah. 
Chances go down toward the coast. With sunset this evening the 
chances for MVFR conditions return. Felt that IFR is possible but 
decided to wait for another model run or two. Any rainfall that 
may fall will also affect the area as well. 


40 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 356 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ 


Discussion... 
at 06z...a weak front extended from northern Louisiana...along the 
Red River and then up towards the Texas Panhandle. A long lived 
mesoscale convective system was located over southwest Texas and mesoscale convective vortex was forming southwest 
of ksjt. At 850 mb...dew points were between 12-14c and a weak 
850 mb trough was located over SW Texas and a second weaker trough 
over western Louisiana. Several trough axes were noted at 700 mb 
with one in eastern New Mexico...another in SW Texas and a third 
across central Louisiana extending into eastern Texas. At 300 
mb...weak upper level divergence was noted over southwest Texas 
with weak ridging over the Southern Plains extending into East 
Texas. The abundant moisture at 850 mb coupled with the numerous 
850/700 mb boundaries should be enough to generate at least 
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain later today into tonight. The forecast sounding 
for kcll at 21z is loaded with precipitable water values surging to 1.7 inches and 
a k index at 42. Cape values approach 3000 and Li values are -8. 
These parameters suggest that a few of the storms could be strong 
to severe over mainly the northwest portion of the County Warning Area. Movement 
will also be on the slow side today so if storms develop...some 
locally heavy rain will result. The hi-res models did not perform 
well yesterday but seemed to initialize a bit better today and 
both the nmm and arw show development over the north this 
afternoon so raised probability of precipitation to chance. Closer to the coast... 
additional capping and lower moisture levels will limit rain 
chances. 


Moisture levels drop on Saturday but a weakness aloft under cutting 
the ridge and daytime heating will still produce a few showers 
over mainly the northwest half of the region. The upper ridge amplifies a 
bit Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures and little or no rain. Mex 
numbers again look too cool with the upper ridge nearby...so again 
went several degrees warmer than mex guidance and leaned toward 
the warmer European model (ecmwf). Long range models are different this morning as 
the upper ridge is prognosticated to shift further east by Wednesday as 
an upper level trough moves into Arizona. The European model (ecmwf) is deeper with 
the trough and this solution is supported by the Canadian. The GFS 
is weaker and further north with the trough. Lift should increase 
as the trough approaches Thursday/Friday so added low probability of precipitation back to the 
forecast for next Thu/Fri. 43 


Marine... 
onshore winds will likely persist through the forecast period. Early 
next week the computer models increase the wind speeds to at least 
caution criteria and possibly advisory levels Monday night into 
Tuesday night. 


40 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 90 70 90 70 90 / 50 40 20 10 10 
Houston (iah) 90 72 90 71 89 / 20 20 20 10 10 
Galveston (gls) 84 75 84 74 85 / 10 10 20 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...43 
aviation/marine...40