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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
628 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Aviation... 
other than reduced visibility at times from smoke...generally VFR conditions 
expected through this evening with just some thick high clouds moving 
into the area from the southwest. Expect to see some MVFR ceilings develop 
once again overnight tonight...and these ceilings should mix out 15-16z 
tomorrow. Pressure gradient looks tighter tomorrow...so will continue 
to carry gusts in the late morning through afternoon hours. 42 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Discussion... 
the middle and upper level ridge over southeast Texas early this afternoon will 
move east of the forecast area tonight as a trough deepens over 
The Rockies. A surface to 850 mb high pressure ridge will help 
keep a cap in place over the next few days. The cap will likely 
keep rain out of the forecast area through the day on Tuesday. It 
will also help to keep the smoke and haze from the Mexican fires 
overhead through at least Monday if not into Tuesday. Above normal 
daytime high and nighttime low temperatures are expected through 
Tuesday as well. 


A fairly deep upper trough will then push across the state on 
Tuesday and early Wednesday. A consensus of the models shows that 
thunderstorms that develop along the dry line ahead of the trough 
on Tuesday should affect at least the northern counties of the 
forecast area Tuesday evening. Model forecast sounding profiles 
then show the air mass increasing in moisture with precipitable water/S reaching 
1.7 to 1.9 inches between 06z and 18z Wednesday...and 
destabilizing with lapse rates and convective available potential energy increasing. Expect that 
the best thunderstorm chances will occur north of Interstate 10 
late Tuesday night and over the remainder of the area on 
Wednesday. As explained on the early morning discussion...expect a 
boundary to linger and rain chances to persist into Wednesday 
evening. Drier air behind the system will help diminish the 
overnight low temperatures slightly during the latter part of the 
week. 


Marine... 
high pressure off the coast of Florida along with low pressure 
over the plains will allow for moderate onshore flow through 
early next week. The gradient will tighten a bit on Sunday and 
slightly higher wind speeds are possible Sunday. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Houston (iah) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Galveston (gls) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 5 am CDT Sunday for 
the following zones: Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport 
to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from 
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters 
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...38 
aviation/marine...42