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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 73 °
• Fog

• Monday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 73 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
445 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Discussion... 
currently mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the middle 70s can 
be observed across southeast Texas. Sunday should be another warm 
day as early morning clouds begin to burn off. Expecting highs in 
the lower 90s in most areas with College Station toping out near 
95 degrees. Not much change is expected on Monday as warm and dry 
conditions persist. 


By Tuesday the next system will begin to approach our area. The 
upper level trough currently located in the western United States 
will begin to close off and allow for vorticity to rotate around 
with the trough axis. The GFS has consistently been the most 
aggressive bringing a wide swath of positive vorticity advection across our area Tuesday 
night into Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) has the upper level low centered 
slightly more towards the north and therefore has the greater 
precipitation totals northwards as well. Either way widespread warm air advection and 
positive vorticity advection spells the chance of precipitation across the area. Forecast soundings 
reveal that the cap currently at 850mb will begin to erode 
Tuesday. Cape values are around 2000 j/kg with lifted indice's approaching 
-7. Still not completely confident shortwave cooling will be able 
to erase the cap but forecast soundings do support some strong 
storms. 


On Thursday the upper level system will begin to exit and allow 
for an upper level high to establish itself over the area. Chances 
of rain will depend upon the placement of the ridge as 
disturbances move up and around the upper level high. 23 


&& 


Marine... 
moderate onshore flow will continue through Monday and will go ahead 
with scec for all but the 20-60nm waters where will go with 
Small Craft Advisory...winds may diminish slightly this afternoon there but return 
overnight. 


45 


&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR ceilings spreading north across the region 1500-2200 feet but should 
be short lived this morning as strong mixing develops. Skies should 
scatter out by 16z for most areas. Model soundings support southeast winds 
around 15g25kt after 16z. Stronger gusts near cll with closer 
proximity to low level jet axis. MVFR ceilings should come back in tonight but 
timing differs and will probably keep the persistence forecast going 
for now. 


45 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Houston (iah) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Galveston (gls) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...small craft should exercise caution through this evening for the 
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...waters 
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm... 
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the 
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship 
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to 
Freeport 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...23 
aviation/marine...45