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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
429 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013 


Discussion... 


Strong and gusty winds continued this afternoon due to the 
tight pressure gradient between surface high pressure off to the 
east over the southeast states and surface low pressure along a 
dry line over northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma. The winds 
will lower some during the evening with speeds just below the 
lake wind criteria for the four state region. Upper disturbances moving 
around the base and ahead of an upper level trough around a slow 
moving upper low over the Dakota/S will send some showers and 
thunderstorms into the northwest sections later during the night. 
As the upper low continues to spin late tonight and into Tuesday.. 
showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous from northwest 
to southeast. The strong southerly flow around the back side of 
the high and into the surface low pressure system along the 
advancing frontal boundary will increase the precipitable water 
values to over one and one half to near one and three quarters of 
an inch. With daytime heating...the moist and unstable atmosphere 
along with disturbances riding through the southwest flow aloft 
and a strong low level jet feeding into the area expecting strong to severe 
thunderstorms with large hail...high and damaging winds...locally 
heavy rainfall...and isolated tornadoes on Tuesday and into the 
overnight Tuesday. There may be some storms that reach severe 
levels overnight for the northwest sections near the Red River in 
northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma and adjacent sections of 
southwest Arkansas. Most of the four state region has been 
placed in a moderate risk for severe weather for Tuesday. The 
upper closed low will continue to move over the northern sections 
of the country with the trailing upper trough axis moving east of 
the forecast area on Wednesday allowing showers and thunderstorms 
to taper off from northwest to southeast. For the rest of the week 
the four state region will be under the influence of an upper 
ridge with a northwest flow pattern resulting in mainly just 
slight chances for thunderstorms. /06/ 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions should prevail through most of the evening hours. 
Wind speeds should diminish slightly after sunset but will probably 
remain between 10 and 15 kts. Another round of low stratus and MVFR 
ceilings are expected overnight but should improve by late morning. 
Convection currently ongoing across central OK/North Texas may begin to 
affect locations north of the I-30 corridor during overnight hours. 
A threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will gradually spread south and 
east through the taf period. Most taf sites along and north of I-20 
will likely be affected by convection before the end of the 00z taf 
period. /096/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 72 88 69 86 68 / 20 50 70 40 20 
mlu 71 90 70 85 67 / 10 30 60 60 20 
deq 70 82 65 86 65 / 50 70 70 10 20 
txk 71 85 67 86 67 / 50 70 70 20 20 
eld 71 87 68 86 66 / 20 50 70 40 20 
tyr 72 87 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10 
ggg 72 88 69 86 69 / 20 50 70 30 10 
lfk 72 91 71 89 69 / 10 30 60 60 10 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: arz050-051-059-060-070-071. 


La...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: laz001-002-010-011-017. 


OK...lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: okz077. 


Texas...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: txz096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. 


&& 


$$ 


06/09