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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
615 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013 




Discussion... 
/see below for aviation discussion/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR next 24 hours. A few gusts to 18 kts until 1z...with north 
winds decoupling this evening. Southeast winds return Tuesday 
morning as surface high pressure moves east. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 545 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 


Update... 
the threat for severe weather has ended across southeast counties 
as the cold front has exited the area. Therefore...the Tornado 
Watch that was in effect for San Saba...Mason and Kimble counties 
has been canceled. Updated zones have been sent. 


Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 


Short term... 
the main concern in the short term is the ongoing convection 
across the eastern half of west central Texas. A cold front was 
located from south of San Angelo...to near Brownwood and steadily 
moving south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing 
along and ahead of the front...generally east of Ballinger...to 
Brownwood line. Showers and thunderstorms may continue to develop 
along the boundary this afternoon...as the front enters an 
increasingly unstable environment. Any storms...mainly south of 
the front...that develop will have the potential to become 
severe...with the main hazards being large hail and damaging 
winds. We will cancel the Tornado Watch for areas north of the 
cold front...leaving only Kimble...Mason...and San Saba counties 
in the watch after 3 PM. The Tornado Watch remains in effect for 
those last three counties until 7 PM CDT. Most of the convection 
should be south and east of our area by early evening...although a 
few lingering storms are possible...mainly across the Northwest 
Hill country. Most of the convection should be well south of the 
area by midnight. As skies clear and dewpoint temperatures drop 
into the 50s...temperatures should fall into the lower 60s to 
upper 50s across most of the region by daybreak. High temperatures 
on Wednesday will be a few degrees above normal...generally in the 
upper 80s to middle 90s. No rain is in the forecast for Wednesday. 


Long term... 
the main issues in the long term forecast will be rain chances 
later in the week. 


By Tuesday night...low level flow will turn back around to the 
southeast. This will bring rich Gulf moisture back into the area 
by midweek...along with warmer than normal temperatures. In 
ridging will develop across the area aloft which will serve to 
limit precipitation chances through Wednesday in addition to 
speeding up the warming trend. By Thursday into Friday...southwest 
flow aloft will develop along our western border and farther west. 
Medium range models continue to differ in their solutions with 
respect to this pattern. The European model (ecmwf) is much more optimistic with 
precipitation for our area whereas the GFS keeps rain chances 
along our western border and westward. Without confidence in 
the models ability to resolve mesoscale features...will continue 
to go with slight chance probability of precipitation mainly along our western border for 
Thursday into Friday night. Will also continue to go with 
temperatures slightly warmer than the extended range MOS guidance 
from the GFS. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 59 91 69 94 70 / 5 10 10 10 20 
San Angelo 60 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 10 10 20 
Junction 62 93 70 93 70 / 10 5 5 0 10 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


99/99/04