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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 8:25 am CDT on May 23, 2013

  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect locations generally north of a Sherman to Cooper line through 10 am. This activity will move southeast at 15 mph and produce periods of light to moderate rain and occasional cloud to ground lightning. A few thunderstorms currently moving through southern Oklahoma should continue to weaken as they cross the Red River but may reach northern Grayson and Cooke counties between 930 and 10 am. Across the rest of North Texas...skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through late morning with no rain expected. Widespread low cloud cover and patchy fog will slowly thin and lift through the morning.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
856 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Update... 
expanded the morning probability of precipitation southward due to expected continuation 
south of the thunderstorm in southern Oklahoma. This storm should 
slowly weaken with time with the loss of the nocturnal low level jet. 
However...MUCAPES across the area are near 3000 j/kg which could 
keep the activity alive despite the loss in lift. May have to do 
an additional update to place probability of precipitation in the forecast further south 
if the storm continues to hold together. 


Hampshire 


&& 


Aviation... 
IFR ceilings have developed at all taf sites this morning as rich 
Gulf moisture has spread back into the area. Expect the ceilings 
to persist until around 15z /10 am CDT/ before the stratus lifts 
and scatters out. Some patchy fog also expected at all taf sites... 
but visibility restrictions down to 4-5sm are not expected to be 
persistent. 


Scattered cumuli are expected this afternoon as strong may sun 
promotes mixing with cloud bases rising to over 3000 feet. A repeat 
of the low clouds is forecast at all sites tonight/Friday 
morning...but the ceilings are forecast to remain in MVFR 
category with bkn012-bkn018 forecast after 10z /5am CDT/ Friday. 


Chances for thunderstorms near the North Texas taf sites today 
will be limited. The mesoscale convective system in central and 
southern Oklahoma should spread southeast into the kprx area later 
this morning...but those impacts will remain northeast of dfw 
metropolitan airports. Later this afternoon and tonight...a cluster of 
strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop in West 
Texas and spread east and southeast near a stationary front. Most 
of this activity is expected to remain west of the taf sites...but 
later forecasts will closely monitor the convective potential in 
case the initial development occurs farther east than forecast. 09 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 
warm advection within the low level southeast flow is increasing dew 
points throughout most of Texas this morning...and low level 
moisture will remain in place for the next several days. A weak 
warm front is located this morning near the Red River and convection is 
starting to form in southern OK. Northwest flow aloft should advect the 
storms over northeastern counties this morning. 


Precipitation forecast over the next few days is quite difficult due 
to model differences in handling the weak forcing and determining 
the locations where storms will occur. The weak ridging over Texas 
is not strong enough to produce a subsidence inversion to cap off 
convection and model pop solutions for our area range from dry to 
storms across much of North Texas. This uncertainty will last through 
the weekend. Should models begin to converge on a solution...the 
low probability of precipitation currently forecast will need to be raised for the areas 
where the precipitation becomes more likely. 


There is some consensus among the guidance which suggests that 
convection will break out near the dry line in West Texas this 
afternoon...with some sort of mesoscale convective system moving south and spreading east 
Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is higher 
in the southward moving mesoscale convective system than the convection spreading 
east...so I have slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast. The 
convection may initially affect northwest counties...expanding 
overnight to affect much of the northern half of the North Texas 
area on Friday. 


The process may repeat itself Friday evening...with low probability of precipitation 
lingering in the northern half Saturday and across northern 
counties through Sunday morning...highly dependent on where 
convection does form and evolve into an mesoscale convective system...and what direction 
it moves. 


With south flow continuing through the week...temperatures will 
remain seasonable with afternoon highs in the 80s/90s and morning 
lows in the upper 60s/70s. Afternoon highs are highly dependent 
on where and to what extent convection occurs. 


In the extended...the European model (ecmwf) and GFS suggest that an upper trough 
will move into the Great Basin by Thursday...extending south to 
northern Mexico. This system has the potential to produce 
convection next Thursday and Friday...and I added low probability of precipitation to the 
grids for those two days. 84 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 88 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Waco, Texas 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Paris, Texas 85 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20 
Denton, Texas 87 70 84 70 83 / 20 20 20 10 20 
McKinney, Texas 88 70 85 70 84 / 30 20 20 10 20 
Dallas, Texas 90 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Terrell, Texas 89 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Corsicana, Texas 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Temple, Texas 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Mineral Wells, Texas 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


85/85