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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
917 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Update... 
introduced rain chances into the Permian Basin and increased probability of precipitation 
southwest to the Stockton plateau. Reducing probability of precipitation over western areas... 
including much of southeastern New Mexico. 


&& 


Discussion... 
thunderstorms have developed near Midland and may increase through 
10 PM. Also seeing strong convection continuing in eastern Reeves 
and southern Ward counties. Based on current trends...extending 
rain chances eastward. Cap should be taking hold...so would not 
expect convection to maintain much beyond 10 PM. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 556 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/ 


Discussion... 


See aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 


Convection will be possible at all terminals except kmaf for the 
next few hours as the outflow boundary from storms to the NE 
collides west/convection coming off the mountains west. However...VFR 
conditions should prevail outside of direct...heavier convection. 
Otherwise...a 40+kt low level jet will maintain return flow overnight. 
Another fairly widespread cumulus field will be possible 
Thursday...W/bases 7-9 kft above ground level. 


Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/ 


Discussion... 
the subtropical upper ridge that has been centered over Mexico the 
past several days has been edging northward toward West Texas 
today while an upper low digs into the Pacific northwest. At the 
surface...strong southerly flow persists as Lee troughing enhances 
to the north. Skies have been mostly clear through the morning and 
middle afternoon temperatures have warmed to low 90s. Several showers 
and thunderstorms are in the process of developing over the Davis 
and Guadalupe Mountain regions this afternoon and are expected to 
migrate out into the plains of southeast New Mexico and portions 
of West Texas through this evening. Meanwhile...an early morning 
mesoscale convective system that moved through the Texas Panhandle has sent an outflow 
boundary southwest toward the Permian Basin...as noted on radar. 
This boundary will likely generate some severe thunderstorm 
activity across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New 
Mexico and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for these 
areas. The main threats will be large hail...damaging winds and 
heavy rainfall. Will make note of this in the severe weather potential statement. Any convection 
moving off the mountains of southeast New Mexico will have the 
potential to interact with this boundary and could result in an 
isolated short- lived tornado. 


The upper ridge will shift slightly eastward Thursday and Friday but 
maintain its influence over most of the region. Surface Lee 
troughing will extend southward into eastern New Mexico and West 
Texas...keep strong southerly flow and ample moisture in place 
through the weekend. Surface heating near the trough axis may help 
to generate some afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the 
higher terrain regions as well as the southeast New Mexico plains 
through Sunday. Confidence is currently low however if we can get a 
weakness in the western periphery of the upper ridge during peak 
heating...coincident with a middle level Theta-E axis...then its 
definitely possible for the above mentioned locations. 
Otherwise...rain chances will remain none for most locations through 
the forecast period. High temperatures will remain in the middle to 
upper 90s with higher readings in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys. 
Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Andrews Texas 73 96 72 96 / 30 10 10 10 
Big Spring Texas 73 97 73 96 / 30 0 0 0 
Carlsbad nm 71 101 70 100 / 10 20 20 20 
Dryden Texas 76 97 75 95 / 20 0 0 0 
Fort Stockton Texas 73 97 73 97 / 40 10 10 10 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 69 94 69 93 / 10 30 30 20 
Hobbs nm 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 20 20 
Marfa Texas 62 92 62 90 / 30 20 20 10 
Midland International Airport Texas 73 96 72 96 / 40 0 0 0 
Odessa Texas 73 97 74 96 / 40 10 10 0 
Wink Texas 73 100 73 100 / 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


05/99