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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 77 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
705 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013 


Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...expect ceilings to deteriorate once again this evening as 
low stratus develops and moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Will 
continue to experience slight reductions due to haze from 
agricultural burning to our south. Ceilings will raise to VFR by late 
morning as high pressure and drier air works into the area. Winds 
will mainly be from the southeast this period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 157 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/ 


Short term /now through Thursday Thursday night/... middle level 
trough axis along the coast this morning with a weakening surface 
trough along or just inland from the Texas coast. Low level 
moisture is surging north over this weak boundary a surface ridge 
slowly moves east. Main feature is thick low cloudiness and higher 
dew points. The clouds are having a hard time breaking this 
afternoon with the lack of stronger winds to mix through the 
surface inversion. Even a few light rain showers were reported 
around Brownsville earlier today. Have opted to keep a very low 
chance of light rain in through the evening for all areas but 
amounts should be only a trace with no real lift of the moisture 
occurring and the inversion keeping a cap on things. 


The surface ridge moves farther east Thursday and low pressure 
deepens under an upper ridge over the west. Pressure gradient 
strengthens slightly allowing for an increase in mixing. Morning 
low clouds to break in the afternoon with more sunshine and heat 
developing. Very shallow moisture layer and no appreciable lift of 
low level focus for any rain on Thursday. Temperatures to warm 
slightly with more sunshine with near normal readings. Both mav and 
met are within a few degrees of each other with the going forecast 
taking a blend of two. 


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...strong 500 mb ridge will be 
centered across Texas on Friday...capping the local environment 
and steering systems well to the north. Dominant surface ridging 
across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southeast 
flow across the region. Fires in southern Mexico are still 
ongoing...so haze and smoke will continue to be steered into the 
region through the weekend. Went with a general blend of models 
for highs this weekend...generally in the 90s...with southeast 
winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Models still disagreeing on upper pattern 
early next week. Leaning toward continued ridging as summertime 
pattern tries to take hold of the region. Went with slightly 
warmer temperatures for Monday/Tuesday of middle 90s to 100 west. 


Marine... 
now through Thursday night ... to moderate east to southeast 
winds tonight becoming southeast Thursday with high pressure moving 
slowly east. Stronger winds are expected over the Laguna Thursday 
where the pressure gradient is strongest but no small craft 
advisories are anticipated. Steady state seas of 3 to 5 feet are 
anticipated tonight and could lower to one more foot on Thursday. 


Friday through Sunday...dominant high pressure across the northern 
Gulf continues to provide modest southeast flow through the 
weekend. Winds will generally run 15 knots each day...keeping seas 
in the 3 to 5 foot range. 


&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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