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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 64 °
• Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
1150 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013 


Aviation... 
strong Post-thunderstorm outflow winds will affect the klbb 
terminal through about 0630 UTC. Then...low stratus is expected to 
develop at kcds by around 1000 UTC. There is some potential for 
MVFR ceilings at klbb at well...but confidence is too low for 
mention in the taf. Aside from the outflow...southerly winds are 
expected to prevail. Added a cumulonimbus mention at klbb by late afternoon to 
account for the expected development of widely scattered thunderstorms and rain. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1024 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Update... 
another quick update to reconfigure probability of precipitation favoring the north- 
central...south-central and southwest zones...given the current 
radar trends. Overall weakening storm intensities should continue 
as the boundary layer cools...though gusty winds...areas of 
blowing dust and brief heavy rains will still be possible for some 
time as the convective complexes gradually gust out. No other 
changes made to the grids at this time. 


Previous discussion... /issued 652 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Update... 
quick update to increase probability of precipitation across the far western counties this 
evening...particularly the northwestern most zones...where 
strong/severe convection is poised to move in. Hail and wind 
threat may persist for a couple of hours as storms move into 
strong instability...though expect a gradually weakening trend 
after sunset. Still...gusty /and dusty/ outflow could organize and 
make a push eastward across The Caprock. Updated products have 
been sent. 


Previous discussion... /issued 631 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Aviation... 
aviation concerns are -tsra and/or strong outflow boundary at klbb 
late this evening...and MVFR ceilings at kcds early Sunday 
morning. T-storms in eastern nm will gradually move east this 
evening...but will likely decay before reaching klbb. The passage 
of an outflow boundary is considered more likely at this 
time. We have very low confidence in wind speeds associated. With any 
boundary...so we have kept them on the conservative side in a 
tempo mention. At kcds...we expect low stratus to move in around 
10 UTC...then gradually scour out Sun morning. VFR conditions are 
expected area-wide by midday...with widely scattered cumulonimbus developing 
by middle to late afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Short term... 
moist upslope flow across eastern New Mexico has already supported 
scattered thunderstorms from the sacramentos north to Santa Rosa. A second 
area of interest is evident on visible satellite along the Mescalero 
Escarpment where agitated cumulus have recently developed. Hrrr and 
NAM-WRF both forecast thunderstorm development along this cumulus line before 00z 
and carry it eastward to various degrees within 20 knots of 
700-500mb flow. Considering cinh is trending negligible along the 
nm/Texas state line and SBCAPE is around 2k j/kg...have added severe 
mention to our westernmost counties where this activity will likely 
peak in intensity before diminishing thereafter as the mixing layer 
decouples. Little/no background support may further limit the 
chances of this persisting over the remainder of the South 
Plains...but will keep some isolated mention through 06z. 


Sunday will see improved west-southwesterly flow overspread the region resulting 
in the dryline mixing out of New Mexico and stalling somewhere over 
the western 1/3 of the County Warning Area. Albeit modest...an additional influx of 
Gulf moisture by early Sunday is prognosticated to secure higher sbcapes 
generally around 3500 j/kg along the dryline with even extreme 
values in the rolling plains...however the latter is shown to remain 
capped and too far removed from the dryline. No discernible short 
wave troughs are prognosticated...but as is the case today deep mixing 
should prove more than adequate for at least isolated thunderstorms. Window for 
supercells will be opened 0-6km bulk shear vectors rise to nearly 40 
knots and maintain a perpendicular orientation to the dryline. 
Robust cape in the hail growth layer combined with relatively high 
local values will open the window for some very large hail and damaging 
downbursts. Most high temperatures were kept a few degrees above 
MOS...particularly west of the dryline where our highest elevations 
could end up with the hottest values for the day. 


Long term... 
high amplitude ridge oriented from The Big Bend to the western Great 
Lakes thence well into central Canada will continue its slow 
eastward progression as a couple of storm systems come ashore the 
Pacific northwest. Toward middle week...flow across West Texas will 
strengthen as negatively tilted trough deepens from the Pacific northwest. 
Thursday should see a return to zonal flow as upper low settles 
across Wyoming though another lobe of energy rotating around the Wyoming 
system will approach late Thursday/early Friday with southwesterlies 
persisting through day 7. 


Will continue mention of thunderstorms and rain into the evening hours on Sunday with 
conditions settling after sunset. Dryline should push into New 
Mexico overnight then tighten up again Monday afternoon with 
convection looking most likely east of a Silverton to Brownfield 
line though some variance will be possible given the influences of 
Sunday night/S storms. Wednesday looks to keep the dryline a bit 
further west thus giving more of the area a shot at the much needed 
rainfall. With the more strongly difluent flow on Wednesday...this 
could be the most pronounced of the severe weather this week though 
each day will have severe potential. The long and short of it is 
that each day over the next week...we will see at least scattered 
convection potential each afternoon as the dryline sloshes across 
the region. At present...it would appear the tornado threat this 
week would be maximized across the northeastern zones on Wednesday. 


To the west of the dryline...elevated to low end critical fire 
weather conditions will exist nearly every afternoon as min afternoon relative humidity 
drops to the lower teens with the breezy west-of-the-dryline winds. 
Our northwest has seen the lowest amount of green-up due to the lack 
of precipitation this Spring and while fuels are not 
plentiful...what is there would be expected to burn quite easily 
given the right meteorological conditions. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 61 94 62 94 61 / 20 20 20 10 10 
Tulia 61 94 65 94 64 / 40 20 20 20 20 
Plainview 62 93 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Levelland 63 95 68 95 67 / 50 20 20 20 20 
Lubbock 65 94 67 95 67 / 40 20 20 20 20 
Denver City 62 95 68 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 20 
Brownfield 63 95 68 96 68 / 60 20 20 20 20 
Childress 68 94 67 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 20 
spur 65 92 68 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 20 
Aspermont 68 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 20 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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