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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1144 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Aviation... 
MVFR stratus is beginning to develop across middle portions of the 
region and will expand overnight. A complex of thunderstorms across 
central Texas will slowly drift into the northern Hill Country 
overnight. Current progression of the storms...and analysis of hi- 
res models suggests a low potential for the storms to impact area 
taf terminals overnight. Otherwise...anticipate ceiling bases to lower 
to IFR at I-35 taf sites in the near-sunrise hours before lifting 
during the middle/late morning hours and returning to VFR by 17-18z. Surface 
winds will be southeast-southerly 5 to 10 kts overnight increasing to 10 to 15 
kts Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1041 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 


Update... 
added isolated showers or thunderstorms along the northern edge 
of The Hill Country and extending west to parts of the Edwards 
Plateau to Val Verde County for tonight. The area of showers 
and thunderstorms north of The Hill Country will develop to the 
south and southwest the next few hours. 


A series of short wave troughs from 500 to 300 hpa are forecast to move 
just northwest of central and south central Texas through 
Saturday...east of a 500 to 300 hpa larger scale trough over 
the western u... lower heights to continue to develop 
aloft over south central Texas. This will cause a slightly more 
unstable environment for rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop. As a result 
will maintain a slight chance of showers for the west to north 
part of the area tonight. For Friday and Friday evening forecast 
data available at hand this evening shows a slight chance of 
showers along and west of ih35...as indicated by 00z may 24th 
maps and input from the 18z...00z...and some of the European model (ecmwf) data 
available. The weakness in the height field is forecast to 
continue along the northwest part of south central Texas for 
Saturday...therefore...showed a slight chance of showers 
continuing near and west of ih35 on Saturday. 


On Sunday and Monday the storm track is forecast to go slightly 
north with more ridging forecast aloft over south central Texas. 
As the storm track comes a little further south Tuesday through 
Thursday...a slight chance of showers may develop again over the 
west part of the area Wednesday and over all of south central 
Texas by Thursday. Medium range forecasts differ on how long the 
weakness in the height field will continue over the area late next 
week...however most solutions beyond the first weekend of 
June...June 1st and 2nd...suggest that ridging could increase 
again over south central Texas from the southwest...if the storm 
track does move north...as forecasts currently show. 


Previous discussion... /issued 837 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 


Discussion... 
continued trends with ongoing forecasts for the next few days. 
A large scale 700 to 200 hpa trough over the western U.S. Is 
forecast to continue through Saturday...drift slightly further 
north by Sunday and Monday...and the move slightly further to the 
south again by Tuesday through Thursday of next week. After 
Thursday of next week...the storm track is forecast to eventually 
with time carry this pattern north. A series of short wave troughs from 
500 to 300 hpa are forecast to move just northwest of central 
and south central Texas through Saturday...causing lower heights 
to continue to develop aloft...and creating a slightly more 
unstable environment for rain showers and thunderstorms and rain to develop. As a result 
will maintain a slight chance of showers for the west part of the 
area tonight. For Friday and Friday evening forecast data 
available at hand early this evening shows a slight chance of 
showers along and west of ih35...as indicated by 00z may 24th 
maps and input from the 18z and some of the 00z forecast and European model (ecmwf) 
data available. The weakness in the height field is forecast to 
continue along the northwest part of south central Texas for 
Saturday...therefore...showed a slight chance of showers 
continuing near and west of ih35 on Saturday. For Sunday more 
stable conditions slowly develop...as ridging aloft increases 
again. As the storm track comes a little further south Tuesday 
through Thursday...a slight chance of showers may develop again 
over the west part of the area Wednesday and over all of 
south central Texas by Thursday. Medium range forecasts differ on 
how long the weakness in the height field will continue over the 
area late next week...however most solutions beyond the first 
weekend of June...June 1st and 2nd...suggest that ridging could 
increase again over south central Texas from the southwest...if 
the storm track does move north...as forecasts currently show. 
Continued trends with ongoing forecasts through next week. 


Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. MVFR ceilings will 
redevelop by 05-06z along the I-35 corridor and spread west to 
kdrt around 08-09z. Ceilings will improve to VFR by 17-18z. Southeast-southerly surface 
winds of 10 to 15 kts this evening will decrease to 8 to 12 kts 
overnight. 


Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/ 


Short term (tonight through Friday night)... 
convection will develop over the Mexican mountains this evening 
and move toward the east. There is a slight chance for these 
storms to move into Val Verde County. Forecast cape is around 2000 
j/kg...so potential is for some storms to be severe. We have 
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde County until 10 
PM. The rest of the County Warning Area will be rain free as the upper level ridge 
continues to build over the Southern Plains. The surface high 
pressure is centered over the Gulf with southeasterly flow from 
the Gulf. This will keep moist air in place. Skies will become 
cloudy overnight. Friday an upper level short wave will move 
through the ridge and there will be another slight chance for 
thunderstorms over the western part of the region Friday and 
Friday night. 


Long term (saturday through thursday)... 
Saturday the slight chance will spread to the east as far as 
i10/i37. By Saturday night the upper short wave will move away 
ending rain chances for the area. Then the entire County Warning Area will be in 
the repeating pattern of overnight/morning clouds and clearing 
afternoons. Temperatures will warm and be mostly above normal. The 
next change will come Wednesday/Thursday of next week as an upper 
level trough will move into West Texas and bring a chance for 
thunderstorms to our County Warning Area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 20 20 20 10 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 20 20 20 10 
Burnet Muni Airport 71 89 70 90 68 / 20 20 20 20 10 
del Rio International Airport 77 90 74 92 73 / 20 30 30 20 10 
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 89 71 91 69 / 20 20 20 20 10 
Hondo Muni Airport 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 20 20 20 10 
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 20 20 20 10 
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 - 
San Antonio International Airport 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 10 
Stinson Muni Airport 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...25 
synoptic/grids...08