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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 4:04 am CDT on May 25, 2013

  Through 7 am...widely scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorm will affect portions of the Rio Grande Valley and deep south Texas, including portions of South Padre Island. Brief periods of moderate rainfall will be possible.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
322 am CDT Sat may 25 2013 


Short term.../today through Sunday/...well so much for a dry forecast 
in the short term. In the wake of the mesoscale convective complex 
that rolled out of Mexico and across most of the Rio Grande Valley 
and deep south Texas on Friday...isolated showers are developing 
over mainly the central and eastern portions of the bro County warning forecast area right 
now...possibly due to old outflow boundaries locally...but more 
broadly due to 500 mb low pressure spinning over the Lone Star state 
at this time. Models 24 hours ago had this feature as a simple open 
trough that was prognosticated to eject northeast out of the region...with 
middle-level high pressure continuing its reign in its wake. Now...the 
GFS...NAM...and European models all generally indicate a closed low 
over Texas...with varying degrees of precipitation potential for the 
Rio Grande Valley and deep south Texas. GFS appears to be the driest 
and indicates little precipitation...while the European suggests 
isolated convection...and the NAM GOES more scattered. Decided to go 
more European for today...a decision that will leave US in decent 
agreement with neighboring weather forecast office crp...and is a slight trend upward 
from what was inherited from the previous shifts here. Would not at 
all be surprised if incoming shifts raise the precipitation chance a 
few notches upwards...especially if daytime heating destabilizes an 
already moist atmosphere. Opted to go with no rainfall for tonight 
and Sunday...as the 500 mb low appears to lift northeast...leaving 
the Rio Grande Valley and deep south Texas on the more stable back 
side of that feature. Given the expected clouds and rainfall through 
the period...temperatures should make it to around normal for this 
time of the year...but still very warm. 


Long term...Sunday night through Saturday night/... 
at the beginning of the long term forecast...as the ridge builds 
across the west central part of the state another trough enters the 
northwest Pacific coast. The southeast flow will continue through 
most of the week as a broad surface high pressure strengthens across 
the eastern plains and the Lee trough deepens. As the trough digs 
southward along the Pacific coast the gradient will continue to 
strengthen increasing winds across the Rio Grande Valley. This southeast 
flow will continue to advect Gulf moisture making the area more 
favorable for showers to develop beginning Tuesday afternoon into 
Wednesday. This shower activity will continue especially in the 
afternoon hours as the abundant moisture and surface heating will 
provide a more favorable environment for convection. High 
temperatures will continue to warm into the middle to upper 90s 
through the week with southeast winds increasing Tuesday through Friday 
with the approach of this trough. The southeast winds will begin to lower 
by Friday but the chance of showers will continue. Low 
temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s for most of the 
week. 




&& 


Marine...today through Sunday...buoy 42020 reported southeast winds 
around 18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly under 
5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. Moderate winds 
and seas are expected along the Lower Texas coast through the period 
as high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico interacts with low 
pressure over the Texas Panhandle. Small craft will likely need to 
exercise caution for portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters for 
today through Sunday. 


Sunday night through Saturday... 
an upper level trough over the Pacific coast will dig southward by 
Tuesday into Wednesday increasing the southeast winds. The seas will begin 
to build up to 6 feet with conditions close to Small Craft Advisory 
conditions over the Gulf waters. This conditions will continue through 
the end of the week as the winds lower. Chance of showers will be 
possible through the week as conditions are favorable for afternoon 
isolated showers. Seas will begin to improve by late Friday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Bayview/Port Isabel 86 75 86 74 / 20 0 0 10 
Brownsville 89 75 89 75 / 20 0 0 10 
Harlingen 90 74 90 73 / 20 0 0 10 
McAllen 92 74 93 74 / 20 0 0 10 
Rio Grande City 94 75 96 74 / 20 0 0 10 
South Padre Island 82 76 85 76 / 20 0 0 10 


&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


This product is also available on the web at: 
http://weather.Gov/rgv 


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