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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
336 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Discussion... 
convection continues across the plains early this morning in the 
active region of a broad upper trough over the west-central Continental U.S.. 
showers and thunderstorms should remain well north of the Red 
River this morning before redeveloping farther south into Texas 
once again late this afternoon. For the short term...the main 
concern would be the gusty south winds today due to a fairly tight 
pressure gradient. Winds may gust at times to at or above 30 
miles per hour...but at this time it appears that conditions should remain 
below advisory criteria today. 


Later today...storms will most likely initiate west of the region 
along the dryline...which is forecast to advance east to within 
20-40 miles of the western-most counties of the County Warning Area by late 
afternoon. Storm motion would bring isolated activity into the 
western and northwestern counties of North Texas during the late 
afternoon and evening hours before the loss of surface heating 
causes the storms to diminish tonight. Coverage will likely remain 
sparse once again in Texas with higher coverage expected north of 
the Red River in closer proximity of the upper trough. Will go 
with 20 probability of precipitation this evening across roughly the northwestern half of 
the region with a small area of 30 probability of precipitation near the Red River. A few 
storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. 
Instability will remain sufficient for a few severe storms over 
the northwestern counties again on Monday. Probability of precipitation will be similar on 
Monday as today with the best chance of storms generally north of 
I-20 and west of I-35. 


Rain chances will increase area-wide Tuesday through Tuesday 
night as a shortwave trough swings southeastward from the Great 
Basin into the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms may be 
ongoing north of the region Tuesday morning along a cold front. 
The front should remain just north of the area...but outflow from 
ongoing activity to the north...and the advancing dryline from the 
west...should provide focus for additional development during the 
afternoon hours. This activity should spread east and southeast 
across North Texas Tuesday evening. The shortwave will continue to 
propagate eastward into the southeastern u... rain 
chances to end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday. The 
potential for severe weather will remain highest over the 
northwest counties...with decreasing potential farther south and 
east due in large part to time of day. This system will be quickly 
replaced with an upper ridge over the central and Southern Plains 
late in the week...which would bring above normal temperatures and 
low rain chances for the extended portion of the forecast. 


30 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40 
Waco, Texas 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20 
Paris, Texas 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40 
Denton, Texas 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40 
McKinney, Texas 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40 
Dallas, Texas 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 10 20 40 
Terrell, Texas 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 20 10 20 30 
Corsicana, Texas 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 10 5 10 20 
Temple, Texas 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20 
Mineral Wells, Texas 95 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


25/30