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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
237 am MDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
westerly winds will bring seasonably warm and very dry weather to 
nearly all of southern New Mexico and far western Texas through 
this week. However sufficient Gulf moisture will press westward into 
eastern portions of the area to allow a few thunderstorms to 
develop over eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties next Friday 
through Monday while the remainder of the region stays warm and 
dry. 


&& 


Discussion... 
sharp upper short-wave trough is currently tracking eastward 
across New Mexico overnight. With it...a weak surface front is 
pushing in from the north on moderate winds. These two features 
have no moisture to work with so no probability of precipitation or precipitation in the forecast. 
However we expect a slightly cooler morning followed by a slightly 
cooler afternoon. North/north westerly winds this morning will 
turn westerly this afternoon. Temperatures should drop 4-5 degrees from 
yesterday's readings. Continued dry across the region with dry 
northwest/west flow off the surface today. 


Wednesday weak ridging aloft brings a zonal westerly pattern with 
very dry and warmer air in from the west. Temperatures will be up 5-8 
degrees. Skies continued clear. 


For the rest of the week...and through the weekend...we will see 
some Gulf of Mexico moisture seep into the far eastern portions of 
the County warning forecast area. Aloft we will keep a persistent dry southwest flow 
pattern with West Coast troughing aloft and Central Plains 
ridging. At the surface...a combination of low-level thermal 
troughing over our region and high pressure over the plains will 
be responsible for a dry line setup which will allow a nightly 
migration of the dry line/Gulf moisture to creep westward into 
Otero/Hudspeth counties beginning Thursday. Thus for Friday 
through Monday...with daily heating and convergence over those 
two counties producing afternoon/evening instability we expect 
isolated to scattered storms over this region while the rest of 
the forecast area remains very dry. 


Temperatures look to run a few degrees above normal. Winds 
southwest over areas west of the Rio Grande...southeast to south 
over areas east of the river. Afternoons will be mildly breezy. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 21/12z-22/12z. 
VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the period. 
Weak cold front pressed in from the north overnight bringing a shift to 
northwest and north winds this morning becoming lighter and 
more variable Tuesday afternoon...favoring west in the afternoon. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a deep upper low remains centered over the northern plains. A 
shortwave trough associated with this low...has tracked across 
northern nm allowing a cold front to drop south overnight. 


Slightly cooler temperatures expected today...followed by a quick 
rebound back into the 90s for The Lowlands by Wednesday. 


Late week continues to look interesting with all longer range models 
indicating some westward shift in the dryline Thursday night into 
Friday. The GFS forecast model is the most aggressive with the 
European model (ecmwf) and CMC-Gem models keeping the deeper moisture over the 
transpecos and eastern plains. Likewise the GFS has the higher quantitative precipitation forecast 
amounts over our eastern zones. The truth is likely somewhere in 
the middle with better chances for precipitation in the east coming in on 
Saturday...figuring any convection east of our area Friday 
afternoon will send some outflow westward helping push the dryline 
farther west than the models suggest. With limited moisture in 
place on Friday...drier/isolated convection over the Sacramento 
Mountains may cause problems. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 88 65 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Sierra Blanca 85 58 91 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Las Cruces 85 57 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 85 55 90 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Cloudcroft 61 40 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Truth or Consequences 84 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 82 51 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 86 53 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 86 53 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
west El Paso metropolitan 85 64 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Dell City 86 54 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Fort Hancock 90 59 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Loma Linda 78 54 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Fabens 87 61 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Santa Teresa 85 59 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 
White Sands hq 85 62 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Jornada range 85 47 91 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Hatch 81 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Columbus 86 59 91 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Orogrande 88 54 94 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Mayhill 72 48 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Mescalero 73 42 79 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Timberon 72 42 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Winston 75 48 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Hillsboro 81 52 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 
spaceport 83 51 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lake Roberts 77 45 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Hurley 80 55 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 
cliff 87 46 92 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Mule Creek 83 37 88 42 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Faywood 80 53 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Animas 86 57 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Hachita 85 51 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Antelope Wells 87 59 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloverdale 82 54 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/99