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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 46 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
1250 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Aviation... 
18z tafs...VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 
hours...with any afternoon/evening thunderstorms remaining east of 
all three terminals. Southwest winds of 15-20 kts with gusts to 
around 25 kts this afternoon will decrease to around 10 kts after 
sunset and veer to the west or northwest behind a surface trough. 
Northwest winds will then increase to around 15 kts at kguy late 
tonight and at kama and kdht Sunday morning behind a cold front. 


Kb 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1216 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Update... 
quick update issued to remove mention of morning fog and tweak 
temperatures upward in some locations. Heat burst activity overnight 
resulted in a very warm start to the day in some locations...and 
temperatures continue to warm aided by south to southwest winds and 
increasingly dry air behind the eastward mixing dryline. The record 
high of 102f at Amarillo and 100f at Borger will both be in jeopardy 
today...although it currently looks like Borger will have the better 
chance of breaking the record. 


For this afternoon and evening...things still generally look on track 
with earlier thinking regarding critical fire weather conditions 
behind the dryline and the possibility for severe convection along 
and ahead of it. Will leave the red flag warning as is...with no 
changes planned to it at this time although winds are looking a little more 
marginal now in some locations. 


As far as severe weather potential GOES...it continues to look like 
the eastern panhandles will be on the western fringe of the severe 
weather threat later this afternoon and evening. The dryline is 
expected to mix to near the OK state line by the time convection 
initiates after 3 PM. Still tough to say whether it will hang up in 
our far east or mix into far western OK. If it does hang up in our 
far east...instability and deep layer shear will be more than 
adequate to support severe storms. Convection is expected to remain 
isolated in our area as it battles a fairly strong cap and also 
perhaps some subsidence behind a departing shortwave. Large hail and 
damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards with any 
convection that does develop in the eastern panhandles. Higher local 
heights will keep the tornado threat much lower...and expect the main 
tornado threat to remain east/northeast of the panhandles where low- 
level shear/srh will increase markedly this evening with onset of the 
nocturnal low level jet. 


Kb 


Previous discussion... /issued 639 am CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Aviation... 
12z taf cycle 
an upper trough will move from The Four Corners region and across the 
central and southern rockies by tonight. A dryline will move to The 
Caprock or off The Caprock by this afternoon. VFR conditions will 
prevail through 12z Sunday as light winds 5 to 15 knots or less become 
southwesterly to westerly 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts after 15z 
today at all three taf sites....then diminish to around 5 to 15 knots 
after 01z Sunday. 


Schneider 


Previous discussion... /issued 446 am CDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Discussion... 
as advertised today will see fire weather concerns for the majority 
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle with isolated severe storms 
possible across the far eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle. 


The retreated dryline has provided the opportunity for fog...low 
clouds...and some virga showers to develop this morning. However...the 
dryline will once again surge to the east during the late morning. 
Models still have a little variation on just how far the dryline will 
progress today before becoming stationary. Have gone roughly with a 
Beaver to Clarendon line for the dryline position by the afternoon. 
Behind the dryline relative humidities will plummet into the teens 
and single digits from east to west. Coupling these low relative 
humidities with breezy conditions you end up with prime conditions 
for the spread of fires. As such have gone ahead and upgraded the Fire 
Weather Watch to a red flag warning for this afternoon and evening 
hours. Overnight winds are expected to decrease as relative 
humidities rebound bringing an end to these critical fire weather 
conditions. 


Now that we have talked about the fire weather potential lets dive 
into the severe potential. During the same time that the dryline 
will be surging eastward an upper trough will be approaching the 
panhandles from the west. Our severe potential will be dependent on 
two main factors: the location of the dryline and the ability to 
break the cap. 


As mentioned above there still remains slight variations on the 
location of the dryline this afternoon. The GFS and NAM are the most 
progressive in sending the dryline into western Oklahoma while the 
European model (ecmwf) and CMC have come into modest agreement...if you 
squint...keeping the dryline in the far eastern Texas/Oklahoma 
Panhandle. Have gone with the further western positioning of the 
dryline which leaves locations east of a Beaver to Clarendon line on 
the favorable side for storms to develop. 


So this leads to the other factor for severe storms today...ability 
to break the cap. As stated yesterday...700mb temperatures look to be 
between 12 to 14 c so storms will struggle to overcome this 
inhibition. But as the upper trough moves closer by the late 
afternoon/early evening the synoptic forcing may prove sufficient to 
initiate isolated thunderstorms. Convective indices...MLCAPES in the 
2000 j/kg range and bulk shear of 30-40 knots...remain favorable for 
any storms that forms to have the potential to produce large hail 
and damaging wind. The main time of when these storms could form 
will be from 4 PM to 9 PM. 


Sunday through Tuesday will see off and on rain chances as several 
shortwaves rotate around the broad upper level trough. High 
temperatures will see a slight cooling thanks to a weak cold front 
during the day on Sunday. Weak ridging will leave Wednesday void of 
precipitation chances before precipitation chances return for the end of the work 
week. 


Fire weather... 
critical fire weather conditions are expected across the western two 
thirds of the panhandles this afternoon. Relative humidity values 
will drop to between 6 to 15 percent while 20-foot winds increase to 
20 to 25 miles per hour with higher gusts. Erc values are expected to be in the 
75th to 96th percentile range...but a limiting factor on the 
significant wild fire potential will be the recent green up and lack 
of fuel loading. Critical fire weather conditions will end overnight 
as relative humidities rebound and winds lessen. 


Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible 
Sunday across the southwestern half of the Texas Panhandle. Neither 
elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday 
through Thursday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle. 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...red flag warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley... 
gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore... 
Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman. 


OK...red flag warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. 




&& 


$$ 


08/02