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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
1226 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013 


Aviation... 
southerly winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts will 
slow some overnight and then they will pick up again by middle morning 
Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico 
and then they will move east. Confidence is not high enough to 
mention thunderstorms and rain at any one taf site because it is uncertain that they 
will make it this far east. They will also be pretty isolated. The 
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts above 40 knots and 
hail. Skies will remain VFR outside of the storms. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 654 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Aviation... 
/12z tafs/ low clouds at the kama terminal with MVFR ceilings will 
continue through 14z then VFR conditions will return and remain at 
the terminals through 12z Sunday. South-southwest winds are expected 
through the taf forecast period with winds increasing to around 15-20 
kts middle morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the 
dryline which will remain near the Texas/nm border. However confidence 
of storms developing is too low to mention. 


Clk 


Previous discussion... /issued 641 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


Discussion... 
once again the prognosticated upper level pattern looks relatively the same 
as seen yesterday at this time. Broad SW flow to persist as the upper 
level ridge axis continues sliding off to the east. The surface dryline 
will be the main focusing boundary for thunderstorm development next several 
days...followed by any convective outflow boundaries as secondary 
mechanisms. It appears thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly isolated during 
the next few days and increasingly dependent on whether the middle level 
warm layer...better known as a capping inversion...is able to be 
breached. Retained slight chance probability of precipitation through tonight. On Sunday...all models 
strengthen the middle level capping inversion so have removed probability of precipitation for 
that day and night with the idea that perhaps less than 20 pop values 
might fit the Bill better. However...local office policy dictates 
that less than 20 probability of precipitation can be used as mentionable values only for the 
first and second periods...so those type of values can be utilized if 
necessary when the sun and Sun night time period gets closer. 
Nevertheless...if any storms manage to form...they will have the 
potential to become strong to marginally severe...with large hail and 
damaging winds the primary hazards. 


Medium range models are coming into better agreement with the upper air 
pattern and handling of western US trough for middle of next week. Thats 
the good news. The bad news is that the 00z European model (ecmwf) is trending 
towards the more open and not as amplified GFS solution...although it 
is a bit slower still than the GFS. Other medium range models are 
converging on a more open solution as well. That being said...if the 
moral majority models verify...precipitation chances may not be as good for 
Texas and OK pnhdls as dry slotting may become more of an issue for Wednesday 
and Wednesday night for most of the forecast area except perhaps eastern sections. 
Therefore...held on to 20 probability of precipitation for Wednesday and Wednesday night for this package 
since the European model (ecmwf) still hints at some precipitation. With most models 
suggesting a faster ejection of western US trough...have removed probability of precipitation for 
Thursday. 


Andrade 


Fire weather... 
elevated fire weather conditions may develop across western sections 
of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles on Sunday...Monday...and Tuesday 
due to southwest winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with some higher gusts along 
with forecast minimum relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent. 


Andrade 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


15/14