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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:11 PM CDT on May 21, 2013

  Through 1115 PM...a cold front is moving across south central Texas this evening and extends east-northeast from Medina to Wimberley to Giddings. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible ahead and along the weakening cold front...especially over parts of the area eastern counties.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 66 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
838 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Update... 
continued to show decreasing chances of showers and thunderstorms 
from the west tonight...as the 700 to 200 hpa trough continues to 
move east of south central Texas...taking the energy to produce 
thunderstorms to the east. More stable conditions will continue 
to increase across south central Texas late tonight through 
Wednesday...bringing dry and warm weather for Wednesday and 
Thursday. Removed the mention of severe thunderstorms from the 
forecast for tonight...as the energy for severe storms has moved 
east of south central Texas. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 805 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 


Update... 
adjusted probability of precipitation to show a trend of decreasing chances of rain from 
the west and northwest this evening...and continuing through 
tonight. The 500 hpa trough is beginning to move east of south 
central Texas...taking the energy to produce thunderstorms to 
the east. More stable conditions will continue to increase 
across south central Texas late tonight through Wednesday... 
bringing dry and warm weather for Wednesday and Thursday. 


Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 


Discussion... 


See aviation for 00z tafs. 


Aviation... 
a 500 hpa trough from the northern plains to south central Texas 
will move to eastern Texas by late this evening and to the 
lower MS valley on Wednesday. This will open The Gate for a 
weak cold front to move across south central Texas tonight. 
Through 06z scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are expected to develop over 
south central Texas along and east of a line from near 
kgtu to kaus to ksat to kpez. West of this line isolated 
early evening rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible in wake of daytime 
heating...and with the wind shift coming across the west 
part of south central Texas from the north. After 06z more 
stable conditions will develop over south central Texas...as 
ridging aloft increases from the west. This will cause drier and 
warmer weather for the area on Wednesday...with VFR conditions 
across the area. 


Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/ 


Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)... 
a frontal boundary stretching from near Denton to San Angelo to 
Fort Stockton will be the primary focus of thunderstorm 
development this afternoon and evening. The atmosphere is quite 
unstable over south central Texas. Surface winds from the south 
have brought moist Gulf air with dew points around 70. Cold air in 
the middle-levels has steepened lapse rates. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale-analysis shows cape 
above 3000 j/kg across much of the forecast area. Expecting storms 
to move in to our County Warning Area late this afternoon and evening. Any storms may 
become severe and the main threats will be for large hail and 
damaging wind gusts with a slight threat for tornadoes. Most 
convection should be over by 2am...but isolated thunderstorms 
could linger overnight especially over the southeast. The front 
will dissipate Wednesday and the upper level trough will move off 
to the east. This will end any precipitation chances. A middle to upper 
level ridge will begin to build over the Southern Plains Wednesday 
evening. 


Long term (thursday through tuesday)... 
the middle to upper level ridge will build across the central part of 
the country through the end of the week. The low level flow will 
continue to be from the south to southeast. This will put US back 
into the warm...moist pattern with overnight/morning clouds over 
the eastern half of the area followed by afternoon/evening 
clearing. Temperatures will be above normal. Rain chances will be 
nearly zero. The one possibility for any rain is a short wave 
trough models move through the upper pattern Friday/Saturday. Both 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a chance for precipitation over the western part of 
the County Warning Area. However...have discounted this since low level moisture 
will be shallow and upper ridge looks strong. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 90 68 92 71 93 / 30 20 - 0 0 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 91 68 91 69 92 / 30 20 - 0 0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 68 92 70 93 / 20 20 - 0 0 
Burnet Muni Airport 86 64 90 68 91 / 30 10 - 0 0 
del Rio International Airport 96 71 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 0 
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 66 89 71 90 / 30 20 - 0 0 
Hondo Muni Airport 90 69 95 71 96 / 20 10 - 0 0 
San Marcos Muni Airport 90 69 90 70 91 / 30 20 - 0 0 
La Grange - Fayette regional 90 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 10 0 0 
San Antonio International Airport 92 70 92 73 93 / 20 20 - 0 0 
Stinson Muni Airport 91 70 92 72 93 / 20 20 - 0 0 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...08 
synoptic/grids...17 
public service/data collection...33