Updated: 6:00 PM MDT on January 26, 2015
Partly cloudy. Lows overnight in the upper 40s.
Clear to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 48F. Winds light and variable.
Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 72F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Scattered thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy skies overnight. Low 49F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 77F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy skies. Low 48F. Winds N at 10 to 20 mph.
Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds NNE at 15 to 25 mph.
Clear. Low 36F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny skies. High 67F. Winds SE at 15 to 25 mph.
Generally fair. Low around 45F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High near 80F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low 52F. Winds S at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 82F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear skies during the evening will give way to isolated thunderstorms overnight. Low 56F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High around 80F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Scattered thunderstorms in the evening, with mostly cloudy skies overnight. Low 54F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Scattered thunderstorms. High 73F. Winds NNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Scattered thunderstorms in the evening, then variable clouds overnight with more showers at times. Low 52F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Mainly cloudy. High near 70F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly clear skies. Low around 50F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny skies. High 72F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 50F. Winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 948 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 Update... issued at 943 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 Most of the evening convection has died. Still a few showers remaining over the northwest and from around Minot to just west of Jamestown...but are fading fast. Will remove the mention of thunder for this evening. Mesoscale models and new NAM are still hinting at some shower activity late tonight around The Turtle mountains. Could be enough instability aloft for an elevated thunder so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms in this area after midnight. Otherwise no significant updates needed. Update issued at 648 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 Instability showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to diminish in coverage this evening. Adjusted probability of precipitation downward a bit with just a mention of isolated thunder early this evening. For now did keep a mention of isolated thundershowers across the north later tonight as previously forecast. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. && Short term...(this evening through wednesday) issued at 316 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening...and again on Wednesday afternoon highlight the short term forecast. As of 2030 UTC...scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across much of western and central North Dakota. This trend is expected into the early evening....with a diurnal down trend with sunset. Given ml cape values of 500-700 j/kg and very weak deep layer shear...no severe weather is expected. For tonight...the 12 UTC WRF-arw/nmm and 16-18 UTC hrrr iterations continue to suggest isolated convection across northwest North Dakota with weak impulses ejecting out of the upper level low across Washington and Idaho. Additional isolated showers and storms are possible across The Turtle mountains...again with weak impulses propagating southeast in the northern stream. On Wednesday...a more potent upper level wave is forecast to propagate into western North Dakota during the afternoon. 12 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings suggest rather weak ml cape in the 200-500 j/kg range...with severe convection as a result not expected. However....precipitable water values of 1.00 to 1.25 inches points to another round of potential widespread moderate rainfall amounts in the 0.30 to 0.50 inch range with widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) issued at 316 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 Forecast issues this period include increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday with a significant cool down Friday into Saturday. Some patchy frost will be possible Saturday morning. Models are in general agreement in bringing an h500 trough from the northwest US into the northern plains Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across west and central North Dakota Wednesday night and continuing central and eastern North Dakota Thursday. As the h500 trough merges into a cool upper low over central Canada...the associated h850 flow with this cold upper flow brings in pretty unseasonably cool air with even a 1030mb surface high across the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. Fridays highs will be in the 50s north and 60s south and by Saturday morning widespread temperatures in the middle to upper 30s with patchy frost possible. Temperatures will return to more normal by Monday and Tuesday with highs into the 70s. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) issued at 943 PM CDT Tuesday may 26 2015 For the 27 00 UTC taf issuance...have removed the mention of thunder and vcsh at taf sites. Possible late night shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to remain northeast of Minot. Otherwise VFR conditions tonight with light winds. Could be some patchy fog again late but not confident enough at this time to mention in any one taf. Another low pressure system will move into the southwest Wednesday morning and spread north and east. Brought a mention of thunderstorms to kdik around 18 UTC and kisn around 22 UTC. && Bis watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...twh short term...ayd long term...warm air advection aviation...twh