Updated: 9:00 PM MDT on September 01, 2014
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 77F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 79F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 48F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the NW after midnight. Chance of rain 20%.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 63F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 mph.
Partly cloudy. Low of 43F. Winds from the North at 5 to 20 mph shifting to the ENE after midnight.
Overcast with a chance of rain. High of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 66F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph.
Clear. Low of 52F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 68F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 55F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Clear. Fog early. High of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 66F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 50F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Partly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 48F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. High of 59F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Clear. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. High of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Clear. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Updated: 11:55 PM MDT
|Temperature: 50 °F||Dew Point: 48 °F||Humidity: 93%||Wind: WNW at 6 mph||Pressure: 29.90 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 48 °F||Graphs|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1225 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 Update... issued at 1225 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 Only minor tweaks were made to the ongoing forecast. Canadian radar shows scattered showers moving southeast across the Canadian prairies. The latest run of the hrrr (03 utc) picks up on the Canadian activity and brings a few isolated showers across the north through the early morning hours. Updated the precipitation forecast to reflect the latest trends. Latest temperature observations were nearing overnight forecast lows already. With several hours of diurnal cooling ahead...lowered the overnight lows a few more degrees. Update issued at 938 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 Scattered/isolated showers and thunderstorms have diminished over the last hour with the loss of daytime heating. Removed evening probability of precipitation from the forecast as a result. Also adjusted the hourly temperature/dewpoint grids based on current obs/trends. The updated products have been sent. Update issued at 604 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 Isolated to scattered instability showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the early evening hours...mainly over western North Dakota. With very weak deep layer shear in place...this convection is expected to be brief and sub-severe. It should end by 03z this evening...if not sooner. After midnight...the mesoscale models forecast a weak wave and attendant light quantitative precipitation forecast to skirt across the Canadian border counties. As a result...will maintain slight chance probability of precipitation across the extreme northern County Warning Area after midnight. Convection should be brief and remain sub-severe if it even materializes. Otherwise...just made a few cosmetic adjustments to the hourly sensible weather grids. The updated products will be out shortly. && Short term...(this evening through tuesday) issued at 247 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with high over the Pacific northwest into the central rockies. Upper level analysis places broad trough centered over the plains working towards the Midwest. Modest short wave working through the flow now making its way from eastern Montana into the western Dakotas starting to produce some convection. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening...expect some showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop through the afternoon. Expect any activity should remain on the tame side with weak instability/shear. Most activity should come to an end this evening with diminishing insolation...though some showers/storms may linger through the overnight over far northern North Dakota as another wave makes its way through. On Tuesday...a few showers/storms may continue over the far north as aforementioned wave continues to make its way through. Otherwise a quiet day is on tap as low amplitude ridge starts to work its way into the area. Slightly milder temperatures are expected. Long term...(tuesday night through monday) issued at 247 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 The extended model suite is in good agreement with a positively tilted shortwave trough currently located/elongated from 140w/60n to 150w/55n...to shift inland Tuesday night. This trough is forecast to remain neutral to slightly negative tilted as it slides across western and central North Dakota Wednesday night/Thursday morning. This will be the time period with the highest probability of precipitation...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heaviest rainfall appears to occur over north central North Dakota with around 0.65 inches forecast from Mohall to Stanley...and from Minot to near Garrison. NAM/GFS soundings show a strong cap in place through 00z Thursday for kmot/kbis/kjms...and a weaker cap in place at kisn/kdik. Have confined probability of precipitation to mainly the northwest and portions of north central North Dakota Wednesday...with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage Wednesday evening and night. A potent cold front sweeps through Wednesday night with the upper trough approaching and sliding through on Thursday. Storm Prediction Center has a see text which includes North Dakota...however limited low level moisture per an east to southeasterly flow may inhibit organized severe thunderstorms from developing. However strong 0-6km shear of 55kt to 60kt will be in place ahead of the upper trough and along/ahead of the surface cold front. This will be monitored closely. Strong cooling as the 850 mb front slides through...with temperatures cooling from around +20c Wednesday evening...to +6c Thursday evening. Expect the greatest warmth to occur across southern North Dakota Wednesday afternoon along/ahead of the 850 mb thermal ridge axis. Expect highs in the lower 80s. This will be replaced with widespread highs in the 60s...except lower 70s in the far southern James River Valley Thursday. Breezy northwest winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour will also materialize behind the front for Thursday. With the upper trough swinging through Thursday...still expect a chance for showers and thundershowers mainly across the north. Thereafter...Friday through Sunday...dry weather with a slow moderating trend as broad cyclonic northwest flow dominates through Saturday. This transitions to broad ridging Sunday and highs warming into the middle 70s. A slight chance of thunderstorms could return by Monday but the better chances arrive Tuesday. && Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) issued at 1225 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the taf period with predominately west southwest winds and scattered high clouds. && Bis watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...aj short term...jjs long term...Kansas aviation...aj