Updated: 8:47 am MST on February 9, 2016
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds around 5 mph.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 5 to 15 mph shifting to the east around 5 mph after midnight.
Cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain and snow in the evening. Lows in the lower 20s.
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Lows 15 to 20.
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Lows around 15.
Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain and snow in the morning...then slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Decreasing clouds. Lows in the mid 20s.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: NonFedAWOS, Lemmon, SD
Updated: 9:55 AM MST
|Temperature: 27 °F||Dew Point: 21 °F||Humidity: 80%||Wind: SSE at 9 mph||Pressure: 30.17 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Windchill: 18 °F||Graphs|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 957 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 Update... issued at 942 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 For this update...removed any mention of freezing during the day today. Models are over forecasting precipitation this morning as radar and satellite observations indicate very little activity over northwestern North Dakota and upstream in Canada. Furthermore...forecast soundings and high-res short-term models delay the warm air aloft intrusion until later tonight...keeping the atmosphere below freezing above the surface. This should eliminate the chance for freezing rain and favor simply a rain/snow mix or transition based solely on surface temperatures. Update issued at 632 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 No change with this update other than to blend to observed trends through 12 UTC. The 09 through 11 UTC rap/hrrr iterations and 06 UTC NAM/GFS continue to support light snow mixing with rain southwest and light freezing rain far northwest late this morning and into the afternoon. The current band of echoes on the regional radar central this morning is associated with middle level cloud cover with no precipitation observed on webcams. && Short term...(today and tonight) issued at 230 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 Short term highlights include a chance of light snow/rain west today...with light snow becoming more widespread tonight across central North Dakota. The highest snowfall accumulations will occur in north central North Dakota. For the rest of central North Dakota...anticipate mostly light snow with a narrow area of light freezing rain. Will continue to advertise the light freezing rain in the severe weather potential statement/hazardous weather outlook for now and adjustments can be made later today if forecast conditions look different. Satellite imagery and surface observations detail a cloudy sky for all but the southern James River Valley early this morning. However clouds will fill in this morning across the southeast. A cloudy sky will dominate the short term period...as a stationary front separates warmer temperatures in the west from colder air in the east. A distinct contrast in afternoon high temperatures will occur today...with teens across The Turtle mountains to lower 40s southwest. The latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows northwest flow continuing into North Dakota with an upper ridge centered across northern California. Pacific shortwaves riding up and over the ridge embedded within the northwest flow will interact with the stationary frontal system mentioned above. This is currently located from western Saskatchewan into the western Dakotas. Our next shortwave of interest is currently located in central Alberta. As it approaches northwest North Dakota this morning and then central North Dakota later this afternoon...the h850-300 mb Omega field will increase from west to east. Warm air advection and differential positive vorticity advection will produce the vertical motion needed to generate a chance of light snow/rain west today...shifting into central North Dakota this evening through tonight. A surface low sliding southeast along the front will enhance low level convergence and produce higher probability of precipitation and snow amounts later tonight in north central North Dakota and also across the rest of central North Dakota. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across the north central tonight...with around 1 inch for the remainder of central North Dakota. Most of the precipitation will fall in the cold/saturated sector of the stationary front...with a narrow area of light freezing rain in the warm sector Tuesday night. The NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings portray a dry layer aloft with near saturated conditions in the supercooled water droplet regime. Omega looks sufficient to generate some light freezing rain...but thinking is the strongest forcing will be along and east of the stationary front resulting in snow as the dominant precipitation type. Long term...(wednesday through monday) issued at 230 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 Snow and possibly light freezing rain Wednesday morning and a cool down Thursday into Saturday highlight the extended forecast. Precipitation from the short term Tuesday night is expected to continue into Wednesday morning across central North Dakota in association with a weak clipper system interacting with the low level baroclinic zone. Along the western periphery of the band from Bowbells through Bismarck and Linton...freezing rain/drizzle may be possible with a warm layer aloft around +2 to +3 c and a potential loss of ice crystals in the column. However...overall quantitative precipitation forecast Wednesday morning on the western edge of the band is forecast to be very light on the 00 UTC guidance consensus. Thus...will highlight for now only in the severe weather potential statement. Further east...precipitation is expected to be all snow Wednesday morning...with around an inch of new accumulation. Thereafter...western and central North Dakota is forecast to reside on the western periphery of two Arctic highs forecast to build across the upper Midwest Thursday into Saturday. At this time the core of the Arctic air is expected to remain east across Minnesota and the Great Lakes. The next best chance for precipitation is Saturday night into Sunday. However...timing differences with this feature are a bit wide given the wave still well off shore over the Pacific. && Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 632 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016 MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities in -sn at kisn/kdik 16z-17z Tuesday until 00z Wednesday. Elsewhere...MVFR ceilings are expected at kmot/kjms by 18z today. -Sn will not arrive at kbis and kmot until 02z-03z Wednesday...and expect this to continue through the end of the taf period. Ceilings at kmot will lower to IFR by 06z Wednesday. -Fzra is possible at kmot and kbis toward 12z Wednesday...but there is much uncertainty at this time for any mention in the forecast. && Bis watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...aj short term...Kansas long term...ayd aviation...ayd