Updated: 3:56 PM CDT on July 3, 2015
Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Smoke. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows around 60. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.
Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 70s.
Increasing clouds. A 30 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.
Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]
Location: NonFedAWOS, Lemmon, SD
Updated: 1:55 PM MDT
|Temperature: 79 °F||Dew Point: 66 °F||Humidity: 65%||Wind: Calm||Pressure: 30.03 in||Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in||Heat Index: 81 °F||Graphs|
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 631 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015 Update... issued at 621 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015 One or two strong thunderstorms are expected to continue for a fewhours this evening west central. Currently there is little shear although these storms have supercell characteristics. Potential for large hail will be present for an hour or two this evening. Raised probability of precipitation west central. && Short term...(this evening through saturday) issued at 236 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be isolated thunderstorm chances and reductions in visibility due to smoke. Latest satellite imagery shows weak shortwaves embedded in northwest flow over eastern North Dakota/Minnesota and dropping through western South Dakota. Another wave was noted moving across northwest Montana. Across western and central North Dakota. Afternoon cumulus formation with little in the way of vertical extent at this time. There were a couple showers noted during the past hour over the southwest...but these have since dissipated. Did keep a mention of a shower or thunderstorms for consistency sake this afternoon through tonight. This afternoon/evening would be solely due to afternoon heating with 1000-3000 j/kg of cape...but no shear and weak lapse rates. Anything that might develop would be short lived and not expected to be severe. Tonight the aforementioned Montana shortwave moves into western North Dakota. This...combined with an increasing low level jet will result in increasing instability aloft. Thus an elevated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Have tapered down the area of slight chance showers and thunderstorms both late this afternoon/this evening and overnight. Keeping this afternoon/evening chances west of the Highway 83 corridor...and overnight chances confined to the southwest and south central. Did keep a mention of smoke for most areas tonight with weak surface and upper level flow over the area tonight...do not see any big improvements. On Independence day...a cold front will move into northwest North Dakota by late afternoon. Ahead of this...the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable with increasing shear ahead of the frontal boundary mu convective available potential energy of 2000-3000 j/kg with shear increasing to 20-30 knots would be sufficient to sustain isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Will need to monitor as we move into the day on Saturday...but no sever wording yet. Long term...(saturday night through friday) issued at 236 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015 Saturday night the cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will likely be draped across central North Dakota. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM/sref are all in good agreement on the timing and location of the frontal passage. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in the James Valley...however the bulk of the precipitation is expected along and behind the front. The cold front is expected to stall across southern North Dakota Sunday morning as a secondary surface low is forecast to develop across southeastern Montana. This surface low will propagate eastward through the day Sunday...spawning showers and thunderstorms across mainly southern North Dakota. After this system moves out Sunday evening...surface high pressure is expected to build in and keep the weather rather quiet until midweek. Temperatures will fall behind the front and remain below normal...with readings in the 70s for highs and 40s/50s for lows...through midweek. && Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) issued at 621 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015 Main hazards to aviation this evening include a few thunderstorms west and smoke reducing visibilities to IFR at times. Smoke layer continues to drift across central North Dakota. This will impactkmot- kbis-kjms tonight. Isolated thunderstorms west tonight but to random and isolated to include in tafs at this time. Low VFR outside of the smoke area kisn-kdik. && Bis watches/warnings/advisories... none. && $$ Update...warm air advection short term...twh long term...aj aviation...warm air advection