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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 48 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 41 °
• Rain Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 43 °
• Rain Showers

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND 
112 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


Update... 
issued at 112 PM CDT sun may 19 2013 


No significant changes required with this forecast update as the 
forecast for the remainder of the afternoon is well on track as 
the band of moderate to heavy rain associated with the low level 
deformation zone continues to slowly retrograde west. Starting to 
get a few breaks in the clouds across the southern James River 
Valley...and will be monitoring this area for destabilization for 
potential afternoon thunderstorm development. Being so close to 
the surface low...deep layer shear is marginal for this part of 
the County Warning Area...however...it would be favored for a possible weak spin- 
up tornado/land spout with the low level vorticity should sufficient 
near surface destabilization occur. The far west and north central 
may approach Wind Advisory criteria late this afternoon and 
through the night. Did increase winds...however...will monitor 
observed trends through the afternoon for now. 


In regards to Hydro...did issue a Flood Warning for the Pipestem 
creek near Pingree. 




Update issued at 950 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Based upon the 13 UTC rap/hrrr and radar trends...did lower probability of precipitation 
across the James River Valley through the remainder of the day as 
the main band of stratiform rainfall associated with the low 
level deformation zone slowly retrogrades west through the day. 
The main question for the James River Valley is how much 
destabilization will occur with any breaks in cloud cover this 
afternoon. Should this occur...isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
are possible...a few of which could produce small hail. Cannot 
rule out a severe storm across the very far southeast portions of 
the County Warning Area. However with marginal shear and uncertainty in 
destabilization...will leave the severe mention out for now. 


See the hydrology discussion below regarding heavy rain impacts to 
area rivers and streams. 


Update issued at 700 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Update to refine probability of precipitation today...as rain has temporarily ended across 
the southeast. Additional redevelopment expected there later this 
afternoon and tonight. Allowed the Flood Advisory for the 
southeast to expire at 6 am CDT as heavy rain has ended. The 
heaviest rain overnight fell in Stutsman County...with a small 
area of 3 to 4 inches based on radar estimates and observer reports. 
The Apple Creek near Menoken is forecast to rise today and Monday 
in response to the recent and future rainfall. Not expecting the 
level to hit flood stage but will be monitoring closely. 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight) 


Issued at 500 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Forecast highlight/concern in the short term period will be 
rainfall amounts through tonight. 


Currently...long wave trough over the western and central United 
States. Strong embedded shortwave impulse lifting north across western 
South Dakota...visible on regional radar and satellite imagery 
with cyclonic circulation situated between the Black Hills and 
Pierre. Associated surface trough over central South Dakota with 
wrap around showers and storms lifting north across south central 
and eastern North Dakota. 


The latest 00z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) have trended towards more of a 
consensus for the next 24 hours...with widespread precipitation 
developing across west and central North Dakota today and tonight 
and beyond as the strong shortwave impulse now over western South 
Dakota closes off and remains quasi-stationary over South 
Dakota/northern Nebraska through tonight. Moisture will continue 
to wrap back east/feed into the low providing additional rainfall 
up to two inches...locally higher...from this morning through 12z 
Monday across the southern two thirds of the County Warning Area. 


With another inch or two possible Monday and Monday night 
(possible more north)...we opted to issue a Flood Watch for all 
of west and central North Dakota with already 1-2 inches of rain 
measured southwest...south central...and southeast from the past 
24-48 hours...or from Bowman to Bismarck and Jamestown. While all 
but the northwest and far north central is in the wpc day 1 (06z 
Sunday through 12z monday) slight risk of rainfall exceeding flash 
flood guidance...the most prone area is across my southeast where 
lingering instability will be today and tonight...and where heavy 
rain fell Saturday evening with the strong to severe storms that 
moved through parts of the James River basin. Convective 
potential decreases elsewhere as we head into Monday...but still 
anticipate heavy rainfall with very strong forcing expected. With 
models fluctuating the past couple of days...felt it to be safer 
to include the entire area in the watch in case of further 
position changes of the upper low. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 500 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


The main forecast issue through the long term period is continued 
heavy rain and potential for flooding. The latest suite of 19/00z 
models is coming into better agreement regarding the track of the 
closed upper low through the region. The consensus indicates a 
prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain continuing Monday into 
Tuesday...impacting most if not all of western and central North 
Dakota. Additional rainfall amounts up to 4 inches are expected. In 
addition to flooding concerns along small streams...and low lying 
areas...will be monitoring rivers closely this week...especially the 
faster responding points such as Apple Creek near Menoken. Showers 
are expected to become more scattered Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
Although some thunderstorms will be possible Monday into 
Tuesday...no severe weather is expected. The next best chance of 
rain will be late Friday into Saturday. Expect cool temperatures through 
Tuesday...with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z monday) 
issued at 112 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


Slow moving low pressure over northeast South Dakota will impact 
the area with stratus...fog...rain and thunderstorms through the 
12 UTC taf cycle. MVFR to IFR conditions in moderate rain and 
stratus for kbis...kmot and kdik. For kjms...scattered showers and 
thunderstorms re-developing this afternoon and evening with IFR 
conditions in stratus this morning improving to MVFR. For 
kisn...VFR becoming MVFR in rain and stratus this afternoon. 
Northerly winds gusts of 30-35 kts possible at kdik...kmot and 
kisn late this afternoon through tonight. 




&& 


Hydrology .. 


Issued at 950 am CDT sun may 19 2013 


A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of western and central 
North Dakota through Monday night. 


Several forecast points across the James and Missouri River basins 
may rise above flood stage in the next 24-48 hours. Will hold off on 
any warnings for now to see how the rivers and streams respond as 
forecasts are heavily dependent upon rainfall over the next 48 
hours. However...for the Apple Creek near Menoken and the Beaver 
Creek at Linton...minor flooding may be possible by Monday 
evening. For the Cannonball river near Breien...minor flooding is 
possibly by Wednesday morning. For the Pipestem creek near 
Pingree...minor flooding is possible by Monday morning...with 
moderate flooding possible thereafter. For the James River near 
Grace City...minor flooding may be possible by Wednesday morning. 


&& 


Bis watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ndz001>005-009>013- 
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...ayd 
short term...New Hampshire 
long term...rk 
aviation...New Hampshire 
hydrology...ayd