Weather

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

1215 am PDT Sat 11 Oct 2008

Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Summary...the axis of an upr lvl ridge located just to the W of

the off wtrs early Sat will drift E into the off wtrs sun into

next wk...with upr lvl high pres becoming established ovr cal off

wtrs by Tue...drifting se toward the socal coast Wed. The upr lvl

low ovr the SW states will lift NE away from the region Sat thru

sun. A wk shrt-WV trof will cross nrn pz5 wtrs Mon...followed by

another similar system toward midwk. At the sfc...these wk

shrt-wvs will be reflected as a fairly wk sfc cold fronts.

Models...overall the glbl mdls are in pretty good agreement

across the region thru the middle of next wk. For the most part

we will stay close to the 00z GFS mdl guidance which has good

support from the 00z UKMET...00z ECMWF...00z Canadian Gem mdls.

This will result in only minor changes from the prev fcst for

this package.

Headlines...per 00z GFS/00z NAM guidance we will maintain gales

for nocal and central cal wtrs Sat into Sat ngt...and remove

gales for socal off wtrs with the issuance of this package. The

late Fri eve qscat showed widespread gales occurring from se

nocal off wtrs S into N and NW socal off wtrs. The latest RUC mdl

guidance indicates gales ending ovr nrn socal wtrs by 10z...so

unless obs or ltr mdl guid changes significantly we will allow

the gales to end ovr socal off wtrs by Sat morn. The abv noted

mdls bring minimal gales back to ern nocal and NE central cal

wtrs Tue into Wed...so we will add 25 to 35 kt gales to these

wtrs for this package.

Seas...the latest obs and rp1 sea state analysis indicates sea

hts continuing to run up to 5ft or so abv the ww3 mdl guid

especially ovr srn central and nrn nocal off wtrs. We will make

the needed adjustments to the mdl output for this package. Otw...

we will remain close to its guidance for most of this package...

but will add a ft or two to its output in the gale wng area ovr

nocal and central cal off wtrs Tue into Wed.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be

coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...

.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none.

.Cape Lookout to point St George...None.

.Pz6 California waters...

.Pt St George to pt Arena...gale into Sat night...hi confdc.

Gale again Tue into Wed...low to MDT confdc.

.Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale into Sat night...hi confdc.

Gale again Tue into Wed...low to MDT confdc.

.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster Mills. Ocean forecast branch.