Weather

marine weather discussion

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

200 am EDT sun 7 Sep 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

...transmission of the offshore forecasts will likely be delayed

due to T.S. Hanna...

Over the short term...T.S. Hanna rmns the biggest fcst problem.

Thru 24hrs the new 00z NAM is sigly deeper and faster than its

prev 18z run rgrdg Hanna. This brings the NAM mr in line with

the consistent 00z GFS which rmns in rnsbly close agrmt with the

latest NHC fcst track as the system races acrs the nt1 wtrs thru

early this afternoon. For the winds and wrngs ascd with Hanna wl

of course hv to flw the latest NHC advsry. In rgrds to the ascd

seas with buoy 44017 up to 18 ft at 05z...the higher seas fcst

by the 00z wna wavewatch iii look mr realistic than the lower

seas fcst by the old 18z N atl hurcn wavewatch iii (don/T hv the

00z run yet). So overall no major chngs are anticipated over the

short term rgrdg Hanna and wl stil lkly be able to drop all ascd

wrngs by later this afternoon.

Out in the longer range...the 00z GFS rmns consistent with its

prev respective runs and in good agrmt with the 00z Gem/UKMET

and old 12z ECMWF in bringing a modly strong cold front ofshr

Tue nite/Wed. The 00z NAM is smlr but abt 3hrs slower with the

fropa. Therefore plan on favoring the 00z GFS fcst timing.

Inadvof the front the 00z NAM/GFS hint at the psblty of S-swly

gales dvlpg acrs the nrn Gulf of Maine. But noting their BUFKIT

soundings blv the low level mixing wl rmn limited enuf that the

prevly fcst Max winds up to 25-30 kt wl be sufficient. So for

now do not plan on issuing any wrngs for this fropa and

anticipate making just minor tweaks to the prev ofshr fcst

package rgrdg this fropa.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be

coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

...Warnings pending until after the conference call with NHC...

.Nt1 New England waters...

.Gulf of Maine...T.S. Warning.

.Georges Bank...T.S. Warning.

.S of New England...T.S. Warning.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...

.Hudson to balt cnyn...none.

.Balt cnyn to Hague line...T.S warning.

.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None.

.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None.

.Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster vukits. Ocean forecast branch.