Weather

For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion,

see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations.

======================

Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state

please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town

radio.

Area 1:

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forecast valid from 082200 to 092200 UTC.

Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if

waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds.

Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5.

Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied

by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.

Gale warning(s):

---------------

nil.

Synoptic situation at 081200 UTC

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high 1020 hpa 39s10w high 1024 hpa 40s46e

low 1010 hpa 39s19w low 994 hpa 40s11e low 982 hpa 58s05e

low 1006 hpa 34s27e low 1002 hpa 14s70e

1. Cold front: 25s05e 30s11e 35s14e 40s11e

2. Cold front: 46s05e 50s15e 55s21e 60s27e 62s24e 66s13e

Area forecast:

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cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e)

wind : se to E 10 in the extreme south-east at first, otherwise

NE to N 20 to 30 but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the extreme west.

Vis : good but moderate in rain and showers in the west.

Sea state: 2.5 to 3m in the west and South-West, mainly ENE swell.

Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e)

wind : se 20 to 25 in the extreme east, otherwise E to NE 20 to 30

becoming SW to S 25 to 30 in the extreme South-West by the

end of the period.

Vis : good but poor in rain and showers over the northern interior.

Sea state: 2.5m in the east, with SW swell.

Mozambique channel:

wind : W to SW 10 in the extreme east, otherwise se to E 10 to 15

but NE to N 10 in the extreme north-west.

Vis : good but moderate in the east with rain and showers.

Madagascar east: (10.5s/25s, Madagascar coast/55e)

wind : SW to W 05 to 10 in the extreme north, otherwise S to se

10 to 15.

Vis : moderate in rain and showers.

Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e)

wind : variable 05 in the north-west and W to SW 10 to 15 in the

extreme east at first, otherwise N to NW 15 to 25 reaching

30 in the south by the second half of the period, spreading

eastwards by the end of the period.

Vis : good becoming poor in rain and showers by the end of the

period.

Sea state: 2.5 to 3m, with SW swell.

Area 2.

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Marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on

area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date : 08/01/09 UTC time : 0500

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale

wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.

Part 1:

warning :nil.

Part 2:

general synopsis, 08/01/09 at 0000 UTC :

cold front cf axis 37s/40e, 34s/50e, 32s/60e, 34s/70e, 38s/80e,

38s/85e, moving eastward 15/20kt.

High 1022 hpa near 42s/36e, with a ridge northeastward.

Cold front cg axis 43s/63e, 45s/70e, 46s/80e, 45s/85e, moving eastward

10/15kt with a deepening low next night expected at 998 hpa near 45s/66e.

Part 3:

forecast for 24 hours from 08/01/09 at 0600 UTC to 09/01/09 at 0600 utc:

Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : showers in northern area .

Wind: southerly 4/5 in the ridge backing S-E 6 over southeastern area.

Sea : moderate to rough.

Vis : poor in showers.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : rains and showers over northeastern area.

Wind: westerly 3 to 5 from north to south increasing 6/7 south of 38s

in second part of period.

Sea : moderate to rough from north to south. Moderate southwest swell

abating.

Vis : poor in rains and showers.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : showers.

Wind: westerly 4/6.

Sea : moderate to rough.

Vis : good.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : rains and showers.

Wind: westerly 5/7 becoming clockwise next night.

Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate west to S-W swell.

Vis : poor in rains and showers.