Weather

768 
fxus65 kbyz 071500 
afdbyz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
900 am MDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...valid for today and Monday... 


Forecast in good shape this morning and no updates needed. 
Unstable northwest flow to continue over the area today for 
continued cool and wet weather. Radar showing precipitation 
falling from Sheridan northwest to Billings to Harlowton and 
west. Will continue likely probability of precipitation for this morning and early 
afternoon across these areas. Main forcing to stay south of 
southeast Montana and will keep scattered probability of precipitation for these areas. 
Middle and upper level forcing will shift south this afternoon which 
will bring decreasing precipitation. Current temperature forecast 
on track for today and lines up well with 850mb mix down. 
Richmond 


Long term...valid for Tuesday...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... 


Pretty extensive changes to the long term forecast this morning. 
Models still in pretty good agreement overall...however the upper 
trough appears to be moving more slowly and digging further south 
than previously prognosticated. Tuesday still looks dry and warm but 
slower progression of the trough will allow for warmer temperatures on 
Wednesday and Thursday as system eases into the area and slightly 
cooler temperatures later in the period as clouds and precipitation hang around. 
System now appears to take majority of the extended to work its 
way past keeping a slight to chance probability of precipitation each day...lingering in 
the east beginning Friday afternoon until finally clears out late 
Saturday night as slows down even further partially due in part to 
forecast movement of Hurricane Ike. Adjusted temperatures in an 
attempt to account for extended period of potential precipitation and 
associated cloud cover...especially for highs Friday which appears 
will now see precipitation crossing the area while previous indications 
were for rapidly clearing conditions with strong warm air 
advection. Warm up is still expected for Friday...though to a 
lesser degree followed by slight cool down for Saturday and 
Sunday as northwest flow sets up again. Gilstad 




&& 


Aviation... 


Scattered to widespread rain showers will continue mainly along a 
line extending from Harlowton to Billings to Broadus and areas 
west this morning. This band of showers will slowly shift east 
this afternoon before starting to dissipate tonight. VFR 
conditions will continue to prevail today with localized areas of 
MVFR and IFR conditions in heavier showers and lower cloud decks. 
Mountain obscurations will also continue through much of the day. 
Solum 


&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Today Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sat 
------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 055 042/066 046/080 052/069 043/072 047/074 049/067 
8/west 40/u 00/u 12/T 33/west 22/west 01/b 
lvm 055 037/070 040/080 043/068 038/069 039/072 041/071 
7/west 20/u 01/b 22/T 23/west 22/west 01/u 
hdn 058 040/069 044/081 050/076 043/075 044/076 045/075 
7/west 40/b 00/u 12/T 33/west 32/west 01/b 
mls 061 039/068 044/079 053/073 042/073 047/076 048/070 
3/west 20/b 00/u 02/T 23/west 22/west 22/r 
4bq 059 040/066 042/078 051/075 042/073 045/077 047/074 
4/west 30/b 00/u 12/T 22/west 32/west 12/r 
bhk 058 034/066 039/076 048/074 042/073 043/074 044/072 
2/west 20/b 00/u 02/T 22/west 32/west 22/r 
shr 054 036/064 038/080 047/070 039/071 041/072 042/067 
7/west 60/b 00/u 12/T 33/west 33/west 02/r 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings