Weather

761 
fxus61 krlx 292335 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
735 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will affect the area tonight and Saturday. High 
pressure will then take control Sunday and then persist through next 
week. 


&& 


Near term /until 7 am Saturday morning/... 
thunderstorms formed in axis of high surface dew points and upper level 
diffluence/divergence just west of forecast area. Via speeding up 
consensus probability of precipitation from short term locally run model guidance...added 
scattered storms to counties along and west of the Ohio River this 
evening. 


Maintained the fog as the ground is still quite wet from the 
previous rain. Timed the onset a little earlier in the northern 
mountain valleys. No changes to min temperatures tonight...which were 
above the mav as it has been to low the last couple nights. 


&& 


Short term /7 am Saturday morning through Monday night/... 
latest models indicate a weak front will push southeast across the 
area on Saturday. Models and latest HPC suggest there could be 
showers and thunderstorms...mainly in the mountains. 


As front pushes away...high pressure will build in. The high will 
bring an end to any chance for precipitation by early Saturday 
night. The remainder of the period should be dry...with limited 
clouds. 


Latest temperature guidance is close to previous temperature thinking...so 
only made some minor tweaks. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
generally followed HPC thinking/grids for this period. Only real 
change was to remove mention of low probability of precipitation Thursday through Friday. 


Weather should remain quiet as high pressure...at the surface and 
aloft...remains in control. Moisture should begin to increase as 
the high pushes to the east. However...feel moisture should remain 
quite limited and have kept the region dry through the entire 
extended period. 


Feel HPC guidance may be a few degrees too high on maximum 
temperatures...so tweaked them downward to be closer to latest long 
range guidance and ensemble MOS. HPC low temperatures were 
generally used. 


&& 


Aviation /23z Friday through Wednesday/... 
showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken as they approach 
the Ohio River this evening...so there is just the outside chance 
one hits either pkb or heights between 01z and 04z. Anything on radar 
should dissipate after 04z. 


With low level moisture in place and the ground still moist from 
recent rain...IFR and LIFR fog is another good bet tonight. Made 
onset a little earlier at ekn and later at bkw...where dense fog is 
not a given. Considered delaying the onset of fog along the Ohio 
River sites heights and pkb but...if it rains there this evening then 
the current timing has a chance to work out. 


The fog should burn off by about 14z Sat...leaving VFR conditions. 
There is the slight chance for a thunderstorm in the mountains Sat 
afternoon. 


Flow will be light and variable to calm overnight. As a cold front 
slips southward through the area...a northerly flow will become established 
by late Sat. 


Aviation outlook /beyond 00z Sunday/... 
no significant weather is expected. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jsh/trm 
near term...trm 
short term...jsh 
long term...jsh 
aviation...trm