Weather

942 
fxus61 krlx 281952 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
352 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
deep moisture from Fay will exit tonight. A cold front approaches 
later Friday and exits by Saturday morning. High pressure arrives 
Saturday night...staying into next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
models indicate that the remnants of Fay will exit tonight...taking 
the deep moisture and patches of light rain with it. Skies will 
clear enough from the west overnight...allowing for patchy dense fog 
due to the combination of wet ground and good radiational cooling 
within a very weak pressure gradient. Again...with high surface 
dewpoints...will go with the warmer met mins tonight. After early 
morning fog...sunshine returns ahead of an approaching cold 
front...with temperatures recovering well into the 80s lowlands. 
Front far enough west to minimize probability of precipitation...with just a chance over 
southeast Ohio late Friday afternoon. Going toward the warmer mav 
maxes Friday. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/... 
models are slower with the cold front now...with the boundary now 
just east of crw at 12z Saturday. Keeping low chance probability of precipitation for frontal passage 
Friday night...as am still not impressed with dynamics/moisture 
accompanying front. Boundary may do the typical hang up during the 
night/mix down east of the mountains routine on Saturday afternoon. 
Enough moisture remains during the day on Saturday for a diurnal 
flareup of activity around 18z...but with front moving east 
thereafter...have a dry regime by 00z Sunday. 


Large h500 ridge then takes up residence east of the 
Mississippi...along with a surface high. Dry weather...plenty of 
sunshine...and warm temperatures take up residence through the 
Holiday weekend. 


Stuck closer to better-performing met temperatures for overnight 
lows both Friday and Saturday nights. Leaned toward warmer mav for 
Saturday highs. Liked mex numbers after Saturday night. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
followed HPC thinking/grids for this period...with no real changes 
to the overall pattern. Still looks quiet during the extended period 
as a ridge holds on. Axis gets moving late and approaches the East 
Coast around 12z Thursday. Could see enough moisture getting in for 
a few isolated showers on Thursday afternoon...but chance of this is 
too low to include at this point. Will at least include a minor 
cloud increase. Otherwise...dry probability of precipitation through the entire extended 
period. 


Still a decent spread between mex and ensemble numbers. With the 
ridge in place and a dry airmass...think ensemble may be a bit too 
conservative. Hedged towards HPC numbers...which were closer to the 
warmer mex. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
18z Thursday through 18z Friday... 
deep moisture from Fay finally showing signs of shifting east across 
the area this afternoon. Last band of light rain will shift into 
eastern areas this afternoon...taking the IFR conditions with it. 
Thus...expect slow improvement from west to east from IFR to MVFR 
ceilings...by 21z at heights...crw...and pkb...and perhaps by 22z at 
ckb. Ekn appears to in a downsloping area so that as the light rain 
crosses them this afternoon...expect MVFR at best. Otherwise...IFR 
holds at bkw for much of the afternoon. After 00z skies start 
clearing from the west...and as the skies clear...look for LIFR in 
fog developing as early as 05z. Becoming VFR most places by 1430z 
with scattered cumulus. 


Aviation outlook /beyond 18z Friday/... 
no significant weather expected. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...cl/jmv 
near term...jmv 
short term...cl 
long term...cl 
aviation...jmv