Weather

028 
fxus63 kmkx 112054 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
354 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Forecast focus remains on warmer than normal temperatures for the 
Sunday and Monday...then timing of precipitation with surface 
trough/cold front late mionday and Tuesday. 


Currently...showers and thunderstorms firing in axis of low to middle 
level moisture convergence and frontogentic forcing ahead of deepening 
western trough. Temperatures have warmed to near 80 inland...with upper 60s 
to lower 70s along Lake Michigan. 


Short term... 
southerly winds have brought middle 50 dew points into southern WI today 
which will reduce dew point depressions tonight. Developing 
inversion overnight will ease winds...with low-lying locations 
possibly seeing patchy fog...especially the river valleys. Have 
added forecast for 09z to 14z sun. 


Expect another above normal day Sunday as southerly winds continue 
ahead of western trough and eastern high. Preferred warmer NAM BUFKIT 
soundings for Sunday are mixing up to +14 to +15c 850 temperatures over southern 
WI will bring 80 degree temperatures to most of the County Warning Area. Scattered cumulus 
field in Illinois marking region of upper 50f/low 60f dew points. Similar 
scattered cumulus could take a few degrees off on Sunday...but models show high 
to our east expanding back to the west a bit as western trough deepens and 
pulls surface trough farther west. Expect higher dew points to remain west 
of County Warning Area closer to the trough. 


Models continue to slow progress of 500mb trough and surface front so have 
trimmed pcpcn for Monday back to western-most counties. Upped probability of precipitation 
to likely Monday night as front crosses region...but only in the 
west as models weaken 1000-850mb and 850-700mb frontotgentic forcing 
with lead short wave lifting north into southern Canada. Front exits southern 
WI Tuesday morning and have taken out probability of precipitation for Tuesday afternoon. 


Models agree that a secondary surface wave will develop along stalled 
front in Illinois Wednesday...and ride along boundary into lower Michigan 
by Wednesday afternoon. Have left chance probability of precipitation in the east...tapering to slight 
chance in the west due to run to run inconsistency with this 
feature...hoping for bettrer clarity in future runs. 


Long term... 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) still at odds with middle/late week 500 mb features in 
zonal flow. European model (ecmwf) more amplified and slower with trough than GFS. Both 
bring a quiet Thursday...then faster GFS brings precipitation with wave 
Thursday night...while slower European model (ecmwf) holds off until Friday/Friday 
night. HPC blend leans toward Thursday night precipitation. Followed a blend 
of HPC and mex MOS guidance for temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions continue with southerly flow across the 
taf Sites. Lake influence at kmke and kenw backed winds to 
southeasterly this afternoon and will most likely do so again Sun 
afternoon. Cumulus developed over Illinois this afternoon within dewpoints in 
the low 60s. With moisture advecting up from the south...we can 
anticipate some cumulus to develop over kmsn Sun afternoon. 




&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...09 rem 
aviation/marine...13 mrc