Weather

630 
fxus63 kmkx 281957 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
256 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion...forecast focus on convection this evening and 
extended period of dry weather. 


Short term...several factors remain in place for convection to 
develop into the evening hours. Axis of instability with lifted 
index values around -6 ahead of surface frontal boundary in area 
of partly cloudy skies west of County Warning Area forecast to advect eastward. 
RUC 850 millibar thermal ridge leaning over County Warning Area from the west over 
shallow nose of surface dew points in the middle and upper 60s 
will await arrival of 500 millibar trigger in the form of a 
vorticity maxima over southern Minnesota to enhance convection. 
Will wait until last minute to see if convection will be more 
scattered than widespread. 


Long term...forecasts in very good agreement with establishment of 
large blocking high over Great Lakes region in wake of departing 
front. Quiet weather pattern continues through Labor Day weekend. 
As high slides to East Coast by Tuesday southwest flow returns to 
County Warning Area. European model (ecmwf) forecast more than GFS forecast tries to inject more moisture 
toward area from gustov especially in the 1000-850 millibar layer. 
The 1000-850 millibar winds by Tuesday night connect this moist 
flow from Gulf of Mexico into western Great Lakes region with 
approaching weak surface front triggering convection. Although GFS 
less than enthusiastic with this moisture connection feel slowly 
approaching frontal boundary will still be worthy of Chancy 
precipitation toward the end of next week. 


&& 


Aviation...high ceilings shifted eastward early this afternoon and 
cumulus/stratocu developed in the wake. With afternoon heating...it is 
possible for thunderstorms to develop ahead of and along a cold 
front that will track across southeast WI early this evening. 
However...model guidance is insisting that the main threat of 
showers and thunderstorms will be to the south and north of 
kmsn/kmke/kenw. With low chance of thunderstorms...did not put 
prevailing precipitation in the tafs. 


Behind the front...very dry air sinks into the region and skies 
will clear overnight. Winds will be light behind the front and 
this should allow for fog development near sunrise...mainly at 
kmsn/kenw. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...17/zajdel 
aviation/marine...13/cronce