Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
157 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
surface high pressure will remain the controlling weather system 
across the north country bringing continued dry and pleasant 
conditions into Friday morning. A weak cold front will bring our 
next chance for showers during Friday night into Saturday...with 
beautiful dry weather returning for Sunday and Labor Day. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
as of 944 PM EDT Wednesday...satellite loop showing some high 
thin cirrus clouds across the region at this time. This will allow 
for mostly clear skies overnight. Previously issued zone forecast 
still looks good...so no updates will be issued. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/... 
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...surface and upper level ridge will slowly 
lift off to the northeast during this period...as a cold front 
approaches from the Great Lakes by Friday evening. Tomorrow looks 
like another nice day with plenty of sunshine once again...but New 
York will notice more in the way of upper level clouds as remnant 
moisture from Fay advects north on western periphery of the ridge. 
By Friday enough middle and upper level moisture will advect into 
area that skies will be more variable in nature and not mostly 
sunny. There is even a chance for some rain showers in western New 
York during the day on Friday...but low levels are still dry and 
vertical moisture is weak. The cold front and associated upper 
level trough will swing through the area on Friday night through 
Saturday morning from west to east. Due to the timing of this 
feature thinking mostly rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms 
possible...but overall quantitative precipitation forecast amounts do not look that robust with 
this feature as best dynamics will slide well north of the area. 
Expect clearing early on Saturday in western New York...and clearing in 
Vermont by Sat afternoon...except for eastern Vermont. Temperatures will be 
slightly above average for this time of year during this period. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...upper level trough will move east of the 
County Warning Area Saturday night. Chance for showers decreases through the 
overnight hours...just mentioning a slight chance of showers at 
this time. Surface high pressure will build into the area on 
Sunday...as well as a middle/upper level ridge. Mostly sunny/clear 
skies are expected from Sunday morning through the end of the 
extended forecast. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for 
this time of year...maximum temperatures will be in the upper 70s across the 
valleys and low to meteorological impact statement 70s across the higher elevations of Vermont 
and northern New York. Overnight lows will be around the upper 50s 
in the valleys and upper 40s to lower 50s across the higher 
elevations of Vermont and northern New York. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
through 06z Friday...taf forecast challenge will be impacts on high 
clouds for fog potential at slk/mpv this morning...followed amount 
of middle/upper level clouds today. Given...the amount of middle/upper level 
clouds already across our taf sites...feel valley fog will be confined 
to mpv/slk between 08-12z this morning. Satellite pics and water vapor 
shows leftover middle/upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Fay is 
slowly moving toward our taf sites...while strong ridge remains across 
our County Warning Area. Based on satellite pics...observation at roc/syr showing ceilings between 
150-200kft...and BUFKIT relative humidity proggs showing 80 to 90% at 200kft or 
so...will mention broken deck at most taf sites today. Clouds will slowly 
dissipate by late this afternoon...with some more valley fog possible 
after 06z Friday. 


06z Friday through Monday...VFR conditions will prevail across our taf 
sites Thursday night into Friday...before a surface cold front 
associated with a developing middle/upper level trough across the Great 
Lakes interacts with leftover moisture from Fay. This moisture and 
some ulvl support will produce showers with an embedded rumble of 
thunder Friday into Saturday. A brief period of MVFR conditions will 
be possible...along with some morning fog at mpv/slk...which will 
produce vlifr conditions between 08-12z each morning. Surface high pressure 
redevelops behind trough with VFR conditions expected through Monday 
across our taf sties. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Dumont 
near term...wgh 
short term...Dumont 
long term...Jan 
aviation...Taber