Weather

943 
fxus61 kbtv 111838 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
238 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will be the main weather feature over the region into 
Tuesday before a weak frontal system moves across the area. High 
pressure then returns for midweek...followed by another weak system 
towards the end of the week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 238 PM EDT Saturday...great autumn day across the north 
Country West/ temperatures in the 60s this afternoon and little to no cloud 
cover due to surface ridge over the area. This will translate into a 
nice evening area-wide west/ clear skies. This will also give the 
region radiational cooling and fog development late as surface temperatures 
begin to lower under light/variable winds. Will be continuing mention 
patchy fog in areas not inclding cvly/St law vlly. Fog will linger 
towards morning in the dacks and east Vermont west/ sunrise taking 
longer...thus longer in morning to burn off local fog patches. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
as of 238 PM EDT Saturday...region will see a couple more nice days 
as surface ridge remains over the County Warning Area. Only minor caveat will 
possibly occur early Monday morning as models pickup on weak shortwave 
that traverses around top of ridge and then down southeast over NE 
sections of Vermont. Models may be a bit overdone on quantitative precipitation forecast...but will still 
toss in chance/sl chance probability of precipitation...confining to mainly NE sections of 
Vermont. Expecting any chance precipitation to be light/scattered and to be done by 
middle/late morning. Otherwise...gradual increase in high temperatures will 
occur as ridge will begin to slide east/southeast...allowing warm air advection 
to filter into the region. 850 mb temperatures will reach into the 10c to 
12c range...which will put County Warning Area daytime temperatures...above normal...and 
into the high 60s to near 70f despite decr sun angle. By Monday 
night...with region under SW flow...some middle cloud ahead of 
approaching front is possible over St law valley. Not expecting any 
precipitation with front before 12z Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
as of 238 PM EDT Saturday...weather pattern will be dominated by a 
large East Coast ridge...with overall flow transitioning to zonal 
flow by the end of this period. Forecast confidence is average for 
this period...with spread in possible solutions by middle-week with 
energy riding over the top of the East Coast ridge. On Monday a 
weak back door cold front will becoming stationary over eastern 
Vermont...then begin to move back north. Increased cloud cover over 
eastern Vermont will be the greatest impact from this feature. On 
Monday evening through Wednesday the area will be on the northern edge 
of a large East Coast ridge. There will be intermittent clouds 
during this period as moisture overruns the ridge...but overall 
looks nice. By Wednesday the trough in the west moves north of the 
Great Lakes region...an associated cold front will swing through 
the area by Wednesday night. Most of the dynamics will lift well north 
of the area and moisture profiles are limited...scattered rain 
showers will be the greatest impact. Flow becomes more zonal with 
seasonal temperatures and a chance for some rain showers by the end of 
the work week. Overall temperatures will be above normal this period 
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday...with precipitation below normal. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/... 
through 18z Sunday...high pressure is centered over the area with 
just some scattered fair weather cumulus clouds over northern Vermont. VFR conditions 
are expected through the period...except for patchy dense 
fog...including kmpv...kmss...kslk...from 07-13z. The fog will 
burn off around 13z and all locals will become VFR again. Sunday 
looks like another beautiful day with just some high clouds moving 
into the area and light winds. 


18z Sunday through Thursday...a backdoor cold front is expected 
to push into northestern Vermont Sunday night...and will likely bring a period 
of MVFR ceilings and a slight chance of rain showers. The best chance 
for any impacts will be at kmpv...with most other taf sites 
staying VFR. Overall...high pressure holds across the region 
until the approach of a shortwave trough and associated cold front 
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This system will likely 
bring scattered rain showers and some limited MVFR conditions to 
the north country during this time frame. Could be a chance for a 
few showers on Thursday...but VFR conditions are expected. 


Notice to users of terminal Aerodrome forecasts (taf)...beginning 
at 0000 UTC on November 5...2008...the format for tafs will 
change. The National Weather Service will begin to issue tafs 
using a valid date and time group in the forecast. All 
meteorological agencies worldwide will also issue their taf 
forecasts in this new format. This is being done to accommodate 
30 hour taf forecasts that will be done for select major 
international airports worldwide. There will be 32 major U.S. 
International airports for which tafs forecasts will be valid for 
30 hours. This format change is being mandated by the 
international civil aviation organization (icao). The 6 taf 
forecasts being done by the National Weather Service in 
Burlington will continue to be valid for 24 hours. To see 
examples of this new format...please go to the internet web site 
listed below. 


Www.Aviationweather.Gov/notice/taf30.Php (all lower case) 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jn 
near term...jn 
short term...jn 
long term...Dumont 
aviation...banacos/Dumont