Weather

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afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
442 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
a large area of high pressure will become established over the 
region through this weekend and into early next week. This will 
bring an extended period of relatively dry weather along with 
plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 400 am EDT Saturday...big bubble of surface high pressure 
will be over the area today with upper level ridge also overhead. 
Today will be very similar to yesterday as far as synoptic set up 
and 850 temperatures...so did not stray too far from yesterday/S maximum 
temperatures for today/S maximum temperatures. Temperatures will be a good 6-10 degrees 
above normal with 850 temperatures around 4 degrees c. Clear skies this 
morning with patchy fog lifting by about 9 am. There will be a 
few clouds this afternoon...mainly over the higher elevations. 
There will be a slight capping inversion over the area 
today...but think temperatures should still reach yesterday/S maximum 
numbers. Should be a beautiful fall day today. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/... 
as of 415 am EDT Saturday...high pressure will continue to be in 
control of the weather pattern through the short term forecast. 
Upper level ridge axis remains over the area through Monday 
night. 850 temperatures will increase to 10 degrees c on Sunday...and 
high temperatures will edge towards 70 across the Champlain 
Valley. Again expect a few clouds in the afternoon...mainly 
across the higher elevations. Above normal temperatures continue 
into the early part of the week. It still looks like back door 
cold front will try to edge into the area Sunday night. Have just 
included slight chance for mainly the Northeast Kingdom and 
central Vermont east of The Greens...which is persistent with 
previous forecaster/S thinking. Above normal temperatures will 
continue on Monday with 850 temperatures around 8 degrees c and maximum 
temperatures in the upper 60s across the Champlain Valley. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
as of 430 am EDT Saturday...upper level ridge and surface high 
pressure will begin to move east of the forecast area on Tuesday 
morning. Upper level low over the Dakotas and Wisconsin will lift 
north of the Great Lakes on Tuesday...and surface low will shift 
to the north of the upper low. Large cold front associated with 
this feature will push east...crossing our forecast area late 
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Elongated 
front...with best dynamics well to our north...will bring just a 
small ribbon of moisture across the forecast area. Have only included chance 
probability of precipitation...because quantitative precipitation forecast looks quite small at this time. Upper level 
flow becomes very zonal following this frontal passage. There will be 
another chance for rain showers towards the end of the work week 
with shortwave embedded in upper level flow crossing the area. 
This feature is still very far out...lots of uncertainty on 
placement...and amount of precipitation with this feature. Temperatures 
will continue to be above normal through the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
through 12z Sunday...high pressure centered over the eastern Great 
Lakes region early this morning will build eastward across the north 
country during the next 24 hours. A corresponding ridge axis in 
the 700-500mb layer will amplify northeastward across the region during 
the day Saturday. VFR conditions are expected through the 
period...with only isolated potential for valley fog with dry low-level 
air mass in place. Light and variable winds early this morning 
will generally become northwesterly at 5-10 kts from late morning through 
this afternoon...before diminishing again by early evening. 


12z Sunday through Wednesday...high pressure remains in control 
with VFR conditions during the day Sunday. A backdoor cold front 
is expected to push into northestern Vermont Sunday night...and will likely 
bring a period of MVFR ceilings and a slight chance of rain showers. 
Overall...high pressure holds across the region until the 
approach of a shortwave trough and associated cold front Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning. This system will likely bring 
scattered rain showers and a period of MVFR conditions to the 
north country during this time frame. 


Notice to users of terminal Aerodrome forecasts (taf)...beginning 
at 0000 UTC on November 5...2008...the format for tafs will 
change. The National Weather Service will begin to issue tafs 
using a valid date and time group in the forecast. All 
meteorological agencies worldwide will also issue their taf 
forecasts in this new format. This is being done to accommodate 
30 hour taf forecasts that will be done for select major 
international airports worldwide. There will be 32 major U.S. 
International airports for which tafs forecasts will be valid for 
30 hours. This format change is being mandated by the 
international civil aviation organization (icao). The 6 taf 
forecasts being done by the National Weather Service in 
Burlington will continue to be valid for 24 hours. To see 
examples of this new format...please go to the internet web site 
listed below. 


Www.Aviationweather.Gov/notice/taf30.Php (all lower case) 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...evenson 
near term...neiles 
short term...neiles 
long term...neiles 
aviation...banacos