Weather

606 
fxus61 kakq 292353 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
753 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Synopsis... 
southerly flow will continue to bring moisture from the remnants 
of Fay remain over the area tonight before a front approaches the 
region on Saturday. Cold front will slowly push southward over the 
region before high pressure starts to build down from the northwest 
on Sunday and hold over the region into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 11 PM this evening/... 
convergence zone along rte 17 weakening as outflow from previous storms 
moves further inland from the NE...but would not surprise ME to see 
more enhancement again into Erly evening. RUC/NAM show some development 
over south central sections of County Warning Area (probably with enhancement from 
outflow boundaries moving NE/sw). RUC seems little overdone and 
think best chance for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain development to be further south over NC 
inland zones. All in all where activity does develop look for the 
potential of scattered areas of moderate/heavy rain at times this afternoon/Erly 
evening. 


&& 


Short term /11 PM this evening through Monday/... 
attention then turns to the potential of fog to develop over inland 
areas ovrnt. 850 mb-70 moisture forecasts show a good deal of moisture to 
stay in place (esp over en third of the cwa). Forecast soundings suggest 
dryer air does move in enough to allow for decent clearing (p/c 
skies) to develop. Favoring fog formation along and west of I-95. Think 
some dense fog may be possible over the eastern Virginia Piedmont (but for now 
kept dense wording out). Mins raised a few notches (esp near/along the 
southeast coast where more clouds and moisture look to hold over that area 
ovrnt. 


Bumped up maximum temperatures a few for tmrw with some areas flirting with the 
90 degree mark (esp south central cwa). Look for mainly scattered afternoon/evening 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity ahead of approaching cold front. Cold front 
slowly pushes southward over the region into sun so will continue 
with low probability of precipitation south of it. 


Comfortable conditions with sunny skies on Monday. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
generally quiet weather expected during the extended period as high 
pressure surface/aloft prevails over area. GFS and European model (ecmwf) both in very 
good agreement through extended period with this scenario...and 
made mainly cosmetic changes to HPC guidance. Temperatures expected to 
be a couple degrees warmer Thursday and Friday...and have adjusted 
previous forecast closer to HPC guidance. Also lowered min temperatures 
Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning...as feel guidance too warm...given 
light winds and clear skies. Next significant weather concerns 
look to be after extended period...and will be dependent upon the 
long-term future of Gustav/Hanna. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
line of heavy showers with some lightning currently across the 
middle peninsula and the Northern Neck along a sea breeze boundary 
that extends from Pax river Maryland to eastern NC. This line is drifting 
NE towards the Bay...and should diminish once it reaches the 
Bay/the sun sets...will keep an eye on it for impacts with sby. 


Overnight...with winds nearing calm...skies clearing (greatest 
clearing west of I-95)...and high dew points...expect reduced 
visibilities across inland locations. IFR conditions will be a good bet 
between 06z and 12z Saturday at ric (which has seen over five 
inches of rain in the past two days) and sby. MVFR conds expected 
at phf and ecg where middle level clouds should develop/persist over 
night. VFR to prevail after late morning Saturday (precip looks to 
develop along the Inland Sea breeze boundary in the afternoon as 
was the case today). 


A weak cold front crosses the area Saturday night and Sunday 
morning with only a low chance of precipitation/reduced aviations 
conditions. High pressure in place Sunday afternoon through 
midweek...bringing a return to VFR conditions. 


&& 


Marine... 
no big marine concerns next few days. Seas have come down...although 
seas will remain around 4 feet in the northern half of the waters 
through this evening. Cold front moves through region Saturday 
afternoon/night. Models do not suggest Post frontal Small Craft Advisory conditions 
at this time. However...models almost always underestimate strength of 
Post-frontal winds. For now...have increased winds 3-5 knots above 
guidance...with gusts approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday. 


After Sunday...looks to be quiet on the marine front through at 
least midweek next week. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ccw 
near term...ccw 
short term...ccw 
long term...worse 
aviation...baj 
marine...wrs/baj