Weather

867 
fxus61 kakq 110838 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
438 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds south over the middle Atlantic region this 
weekend...and remains the dominate weather feature across the 
region through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
drier air continues to filter over the forecast area this morning as high pressure 
builds south. All models keep low pressure off the southeastern coast well south 
of the area through this weekend...but a strngthng pressure gradient by the way the 
high and low pressure systems will allow for some breezy gusts today 
(around 20 kts) over far southern Virginia and NE NC. Mostly cloudy skies over the 
southern half of the forecast area this morning will give way to breaks and become 
partly sny by late morning/early afternoon as high pressure builds farther south. 
Despite NE flow...temperatures will climb to above normal rnaging from the 
middle 70s to around 80. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... 
with high pressure dominating the region through early next week...short 
term portion of the forecast characterized by dry weather...high temperatures at or below 
climatology normal and generally normal nightime lows. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/... 
continue to favor mainly dry solution for the extended period. Favored 
slightly slower/ less progressive European model (ecmwf) solution for this package. Upper 
ridge and surface high pressure dominates weather through middle week...when it 
looks to eventually become dislodged by northern stream trough riding 
northeastward across the upper Midwest into southern Canada. Bumped 
temperatures upward with dry airmass and plenty of sun...highs look 
like they should run 7-10f above climatology norms. Grids now carrying maximum 
T in the upper 70s/l80s Tue/Wed...with a few middle 80s possible inland 
across Southside Virginia/NE NC counties. Slightly cooler M/u 70s across 
Eastern Shore. Min temperatures will range from the upper 40s to near 60. 


By midweek...a cold front will approach from the west by later 
Tuesday...then push across the area into Erly Wednesday. Downslope flow 
should keep this a dry frontal passage...so kept probability of precipitation 14 or less through this 
period. Held off next frontal passage until late next week...and 
installed slight chance probability of precipitation Friday. This appears to be plenty given 
current setup. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
low level moisture S of the Virginia/NC border continues to scour out from 
north to S early this morning as high pressure and drier air build 
down the middle Atlantic Seaboard. Currently...IFR ceilings are now confined 
along and S of the Albemarle Sound (including ecg and ede). Expect 
a fairly quick transition to MVFR...then VFR through middle morning. 
Otherwise...patchy IFR/LIFR visibilities in fog farther north (including sby) 
will also give way to VFR conditions after sunrise (12-14z). 


As high pressure continues to build in...VFR conditions will 
prevail for the most part across the region later this 
morning/afternoon through at least the early portion of next week. The 
exception will be with patchy IFR/LIFR visibilities in early am fog. 


&& 


Marine... 
east-northeast winds for much of the waters now...as high pressure builds into 
region from the north/west through Sat...then remains over the area through 
Monday. Pressure gradient from low pressure spinning off the southeastern coast and 
aforementioned high building in from to the north will tighten as high 
continues to build southeast into the region. Small Craft Advisory flags remain flying over 
all coastal waters south of Chincoteague...including the southern ches 
Bay and Currituck sand. Models in good agreement on NE winds 15 to 
20 knots persisting through the day tomorrow. Wvwatch showing 5-6ft 
seas for much of the weekend. Therefore...decided to hold onto Small Craft Advisory 
headline through the weekend. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for anz632-633-656- 
658. 
Small Craft Advisory until 12 PM EDT Sunday for anz652-654. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...smf 
near term...smf 
short term...smf 
long term...mam 
aviation...bkh 
marine...bkh