Weather

495 
fxus61 krnk 071450 
afdrnk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
1050 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds in today on the heels of Hanna...remaining 
until early next week. A strong cold front pushes into the middle 
Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Another area of high 
pressure will be anchored across New England by the end of next 
week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
low clouds and fog finally breaking up in the SW mountains of Virginia...and 
beginning to break up across southeast WV. Rest of forecast area is sunny 
and should remain sunny- mostly sunny as the 12z sounding at rnk 
shows a very dry airmass above a moist boundary layer. Current 
forecast is in good shape- looks like highs will be in the 80s...maybe 
a little cooler on western slopes where there is more cloud cover. 
Will adjust sky cover for more clouds in the far west early...and 
adjust high temperatures a few degrees here or there. 


Models indicate some patchy stratus may develop over the Piedmont 
tonight as moisture gets trapped under increasing subsidence 
inversion. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Monday night/... 
surface high centered over WV by Monday morning will quickly move to 
just off the coast Monday night. Winds will veer from the north 
around to the southeast by late Monday. Increasing 
instability...light southeast flow and some weak upper energy may 
trigger a few widely scattered showers or storms across the south 
Monday afternoon and continue into the evening. Otherwise expect 
a warm day Monday with mild temperatures continuing Monday night under 
light southerly flow and increasing clouds. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
expecting cold front to pass Tuesday after/Tuesday night...and increase probability of precipitation 
espec in the west for this event. Although early...spc's sref 
indicates a greater than 50% probability for 20k cravenbrooks near 
Danville. This somewhat impressive this many days out...so perhaps 
a severe threat will exist this day with the front. Southeast West Virginia also 
enters the right entrance region of jet so perhaps strong thunderstorms 
there too. Nice cool down behind this front...and tend to favored 
the cooler more amplified solutions of the GFS/GFS ensembles. 
However...if the front stalls along the NC/Virginia border as the European model (ecmwf) 
suggests...then probability of precipitation may be needed there for a large portion of 
Wednesday. Some cooler day will follow again...before SW flow/warmup 
evolves again with another cold front prognosticated for the end of next 
week. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/... 
low clouds and LIFR fog should burn off by late morning 
blf/lwb...otherwise expect VFR conditions next 24 hours as high 
pressure builds in. A cold front will bring a return of 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain on Tuesday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
paces has seen its peak and is falling rapidly. It looks like S. 
Boston is peaking now around 22 feet. Randolph looks like it may be 
peaking...but still not sure. Strangely enough one of its 
upstream tribs is still rising so we may see another Jump Up later 
this morning. 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...js/km 
near term...jj/js 
short term...js/km 
long term...km 
aviation...js/rcs 
hydrology...