Weather

372 
fxus61 kakq 131409 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1009 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure remains over the middle Atlantic region today through 
Wednesday. A cold front will move across the area from the 
northwest late Thursday and early Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
low clouds/fog remain slow to dspt across interior southern Virginia/interior NE NC...and will 
remain the case through the lt morning hours. Widespread hi level cloudiness riding 
over strong ridge...located in vicinity of Ohio Valley...and covering portions of forecast area so far 
this morning. 850 mb temperatures reach middle teens c by lt afternoon/evening hours...and 
enough sunshine for surface temperatures to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 
Lighter surface winds (at the cst) lead to development of cbrzs (kpg hi temperatures 
those areas rising above the Lower/Middle 70s). 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/... 
dry (wrmr than nrml) weather continues through midweek. Hi pressure surface/aloft 
to remain over the mdatlc region...providing mostly clear conditions over the 
next few days. Large diurnal temperature rngs expeceted (30-40f)...with again 
favorable radiational cooling at night leading to areas fog. Low level 
thermal axis (h85 temperatures around +16 degrees c) to be over the forecast area on 
Tuesday...leading to record or near record highs (see below). 


B4 that...Monday will continue west/ a CST to inland temperature variation...hi temperatures 
near the CST middle/upper 70s...W/ lctns inland around 80/lower 80s. Hi temperatures 
Tuesday into the (mid/upr) 80s most plcs. Ngttm rdgs in the 40s to 50s 
Monday night...50s to around 60 Tuesday night. 


Hi pressure begins to break dn on Wednesday/shift S...resulting in low level thermal 
axis to shift S of the region. Still warmer than normal...W/ hi temperatures 
generally in the Lower/Middle 80s. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
autumn...temp-wise...will officially arrive in the extended forecast 
period...as it starts out warm on Thursday then cools down for the weekend. 
A cold front will push across the area from the northwest Thursday into Thursday eveng 
with limited moist/lift. But...will still have a slight chance of a rain showers. 
Friday through Sat...cooler hi pressure will start to build toward the region from 
the northwest. However...at the same time...low pressure will develop over the southeast 
U.S. And track east-northeast out to sea. This scenario could result in some 
ovrrunning rain chances...esply across extreme southeast Virginia and NE NC. Cool hi 
pressure will then build over the area for later Sat night into Monday. 


Maximum temperatures will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s on Thursday...in the upper 60s 
to lower 70s Friday...and ranging through the 60s Sat and sun. Min temperatures 
will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s Thursday morng...in the 50s to around 60 
Friday morng...in the upper 40s to upper 50s Sat morng...and ranging through 
the 40s to lower 50s sun morng. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
variable ceilings and visibilities were occurring at the taf 
sites as the 12z products were being. A broken cirrus deck should 
keep sby VFR. Put tempo IFR for one hour at ric with lower 
visibilities currently at occluded frontal passage. Phf started improving after taf 
went out and will update. Ecg may go back below 3 miles for 
another hour. 


Mainly looking at scattered high clouds moving over the region today. Winds 
at or below 10 kts today and light/variable tonight. Shallow fog once again may 
be an issue tonight into Erly Tuesday especially at ksby. 


Frontal system approaches late weak with an increase in ceilings/chances of 
precipitation. 


&& 


Marine... 
seas continues to range from 4 to 6 feet over the coastal waters south 
of Virginia/NC border. Duck still holding at 5 feet 2 Michigan out at this time and will 
extend Small Craft Advisory through 17z as it will take longer for sea to fall below 
5 feet 20 nm out. Winds at or below 10 kts for today through at least Wednesday night 
before frontal boundary approaches closer to the region from the west. 
This will possibly lead to higher seas/waves/winds into the weekend. 


&& 


Climate... 
area record hi temperatures may be challenged...particularly on 
the 14th and 15th. 


Monday 10/13 Tuesday 10/14 Wednesday 10/15 
ric 90/1954 87/1975 90/1985 
orf 89/1954 86/1975 89/1985 
sby 86/1954 86/1975 85/1985 
ecg 87/1990 87/1975 88/1985 
wal 83/1990 85/1990 86/1985 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...bkh 
near term...alb/bkh 
short term...bkh 
long term...tmg 
aviation...lsa 
marine...ccw 
climate...akq