Weather

622 
fxus65 kslc 071009 
afdslc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
410 am MDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis...a dry and stable west northwest flow aloft will remain 
over Utah today. Moisture will work north out of Arizona early in 
the coming week...leading to an increasing threat for showers and 
storms through midweek. 


&& 


Discussion...the rather broad upper trough across the central/eastern 
Continental U.S. Will keep a generally dry and stable west-northwest flow 
across Utah through tonight. Moisture pinned to the south across 
Arizona/Southern California will begin to work north into southern Utah as a weak upper low 
forms along the California coast Monday. This initial surge of moisture will 
at best lead to isolated convection over the southern high terrain Monday 
afternoon. 


A shortwave cresting the eastern Pacific Ridge early in the week will 
strengthen as it digs southeast in the Great Basin midweek. Latest GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) guidance has gone back to an old solution where a closed low 
forms over the northern Great Basin...then becomes briefly cut-off from 
the westerlies late in the week. More inclined right now to follow 
earlier model solutions where a progressive and energetic shortwave 
digs southeast through the northern rockies/northern Great Basin. Could see a piece 
of this trough break off as the shortwaves moves southeast...with this 
piece lingering over the basin into the weekend. In any event have 
upped probability of precipitation a bit midweek as one would suspect that additional 
moisture will be drawn north and interact with the midweek shortwave. 


Moisture will be swept out of the area by late in the week. Building 
heights heading into the weekend should bring warm/dry conditions 
across the entire forecast area in the extended period. 




&& 


Fire weather...a dry west to northwest flow will continue across 
the region through tomorrow. A more southwesterly flow will develop 
Monday as the high shifts east. This southerly flow will tap some 
moisture from the south and by Tuesday afternoon there will be 
threat of isolated thunderstorms across mainly the mountains. By 
Wednesday this moisture should reach farther north with 
thunderstorms becoming a bit more widespread. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions to persist at kslc throughout the day. 
Southeast drainage winds will prevail into the late morning or early 
afternoon...before the Northwest Lake breeze develops 18-19z. 


&& 


Slc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Utah...none. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Conger/Young 


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