Weather

480 
fxus64 klub 072018 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
318 PM CDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Short term... 
area of circulation pushed across the southern South Plains this 
morning and was currently located across the southwestern portions 
of the County Warning Area this afternoon. Showers have tried to develop north of 
klbb this afternoon with stronger activity pushing up from the 
south. Biggest question for the short term is what this activity 
will do and whether we will see it increase in aerial coverage 
tonight. Have opted to keep highest probability of precipitation across the north where a 
weak front could push into the southern portions of the Texas 
Panhandle while lower probability of precipitation were across the south. However...will 
keep a close eye on storm trends as we head through the afternoon 
hours in order to get a better feel if wee will need to increase 
probability of precipitation across the area for tonight into tomorrow morning. Temperatures 
tonight will also be a bit cooler thanks to rain cooled air and the 
increased moisture levels. 


Chances for rain will decrease across the south tomorrow as the 
center of circulation continues to move away from the South Plains. 
Should see best chances across the northern half of the forecast 
area in the morning and then tapering off a bit during the day. Not 
quite sure what to do with possible old frontal boundary located to 
our north as this would help to increase rain chances tomorrow 
afternoon wherever it might end up. Decided to go on the low end of 
probability of precipitation but without completely removing them. Temperatures will be 
close to normal as much of the cloud cover moves away from the 
region and we slowly start to dry out. 


Jordan 


&& 


Long term... 
primary forecast concern will be precipitation and the southward 
progress of a weak frontal zone which will approach the area late 
Friday into Saturday and linger through early next week. Think 
that a shallow frontal zone should make it into northern portions 
late Friday into Saturday with an associated chance of 
precipitation. Weak shortwave passes the area late Saturday / 
Sunday morning perhaps will aid additional precipitation chances. 


Monday into Tuesday...another frontal system approaches the area 
with attendant chance of probability of precipitation under a weak northwest flow aloft 
regime. Late in the period...the ridge begins to build again 
decreasing probability of precipitation and increasing temperatures. 26 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 90 64 86 66 93 / 20 40 30 20 20 
Tulia 88 67 87 66 91 / 30 40 30 20 20 
Plainview 88 66 89 67 91 / 30 30 30 20 20 
Levelland 89 64 87 69 95 / 30 20 20 10 10 
Lubbock 90 66 88 70 93 / 30 20 20 10 10 
Denver City 91 65 86 70 96 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Brownfield 90 64 86 70 95 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Childress 91 71 88 70 95 / 30 40 30 20 20 
spur 91 71 94 72 95 / 40 20 20 10 10 
Aspermont 91 72 96 73 97 / 50 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/26