Weather

751 
fxus64 kepz 072020 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
220 PM MDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
increasing moisture will result in scattered thunderstorms and 
showers tonight through Saturday. Remnants of tropical system 
eduard will are drifting west toward the region will trigger 
thunderstorms tonight and Friday. Abundant moisture will keep 
showers and thunderstorms going through most of the weekend. 
High pressure aloft will remain over the state for most of next 
week. Moisture trapped under the high will continue to fuel 
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the week. Day time 
temperatures will range from normal to a few degrees above 
average. 


&& 


Discussion... 
the overall weather pattern will become more active over the next 
few days. Additional moisture continues to flow into the area from 
the east. Atmospheric precipitable water values were over an inch 
this morning and will continue to rise during the day...resulting 
in improved rain efficiency and development. The remnants of 
tropical system eduard are slowly drifting west toward the local 
area. The system should help trigger more frequent showers and 
thunderstorms the next couple of days...fueled by the increased 
moisture. As far as a flooding threat is concerned...some locally 
heavy rainfall may occur from some of the storms...especially in 
the mountains. This system is not like tropical system Dolly that 
caused flooding rains a couple of weeks ago. While minor localized 
flooding near storms is possible...it does not appear that the 
moisture will be sufficiently plentiful enough to cause wider 
areas of flooding. 


The tropical remnant should be out of the area by late Sunday with 
high pressure aloft re-asserting itself over the state. Storms 
will be more isolated and confined to mountain locales. Longer 
range models project that the high should remain in place through 
most of next week. Considerable moisture will remain in place 
trapped under the high. The moisture will continue to fuel lowland 
and scattered mountain thunderstorms through the extended period 
with generally spotty accumulations. 


&& 


Aviation... 
valid 08/0000z - 09/0000z 
VFR conditions through the period. Storms and thunderstorms may 
produce MVFR to IFR conditions and strong...gusty winds. Mountain 
top may be obscured due to rain shafts or low cloud decks. See 
appropriate tafs for more details. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
shower and thunderstorm activity kicking off across the mountains 
this afternoon. Expect it to continue and spread as the afternoon 
progresses. Rain will be the main threat with these storms and 
strong winds will likely accompany stronger cells. The atmosphere 
will remain moist for the remainder of this week and into 
next...keeping some mention of precipitation in the forecast. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 72 93 72 94 73 / 20 30 20 20 20 
Sierra Blanca Texas 65 87 65 89 66 / 20 30 20 10 20 
Las Cruces 68 93 68 95 70 / 20 30 20 20 20 
Alamogordo 68 89 68 90 68 / 20 30 30 20 20 
Cloudcroft 50 69 50 70 50 / 20 40 30 20 20 
Truth or Consequences 67 93 67 91 68 / 20 30 30 20 20 
Silver City 59 86 59 87 60 / 30 30 30 20 30 
Deming 66 91 66 91 68 / 30 30 30 20 30 
Lordsburg 66 96 66 96 68 / 30 30 30 30 30 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


04/23