234 
fxus64 kcrp 161953 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
253 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...will carry 20% probability of precipitation 
for the extreme northestern zones and marine areas through the evening as 
vertical lift and moisture profiles support continued light precipitation. The 
middle level trough axis will shift east of our coastal marine zones 
by 04z...ending precipitation for the entire forecast area. Clouds 
will break up Wednesday yielding mostly sunny skies as a dry 
subsident northwesterly flow develops in the mean flow over south Texas. 
Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s coast to upper 70s 
west due to abundant sunshine...light winds and 6dm thickness rises 
during the next 24 hours. Another short wave will swing across south 
Texas Wednesday night with enough moisture and lift to produce a middle level 
cloud deck. These clouds will limit the amount of radiational 
cooling we get during peak cooling hours Wednesday night/Thursday am. Went 
slightly above the warmer NAM MOS guidance for lows. 


&& 


Long term...(thursday through tuesday)...main concerns are the next 
chance for rain toward the weekend...and how cold it will get behind 
the front. Upper ridge moves quickly across Thursday replaced by 
another upper trough Friday. Appears moisture will be too limited 
for rain...so have removed the mention of rain for Friday. As trough 
swings across late Friday...another cold front will move into south 
Texas on Saturday. Moisture comes back for this first from the Rio 
Grande and tracks northeast Friday night/Saturday morning. Could see 
some showers with the boundary...maybe some weak upper support over 
the northeast. Thus...kicked up probability of precipitation over the Victoria area for 
Saturday but pretty much left everyone else the same. Front should 
go through by late Saturday afternoon...more like Saturday morning 
most areas inland. Breezy to windy behind front initially but then 
winds die down overnight except near the coast and in the waters 
where the winds will be at least Small Craft Advisory through Sunday morning. Should 
be colder than normal...generally clear and dry Sunday and Monday 
before return flow brings moisture back and warms things up again. 
Next trough approaches late Tuesday but at this time if any rainfall 
occurs it will be after midnight Tuesday or close to it so will not 
mention any rain at this time. Behind the front went cooler than 
guidance especially for Sunday and Monday and notably for minimum 
temperatures...as generally lighter winds and clear skies should 
make temperatures fall readily at night. Otherwise...a few changes to the 
previous temperature package based on new MOS guidance and isc 
collaboration. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 49 70 52 73 53 / 10 10 0 0 10 
Victoria 47 72 46 73 45 / 20 10 0 0 10 
Laredo 51 79 52 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Alice 48 74 47 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 10 
Rockport 51 70 55 70 55 / 10 10 0 0 10 
Cotulla 46 75 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Kingsville 49 76 48 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 10 
Navy corpus 53 70 55 68 59 / 10 10 0 0 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Jm/75...short term 
gw/86...long term