Weather

357 
fxus64 klub 262041 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008 


Short term... 
broad upper level ridge over The Rockies remains sandwiched between 
a trough along the West Coast and another trough over the eastern 
Continental U.S.. remnants of Dolly...spinning around near El Paso...caught 
in weakness under ridge with 500 mb centers over North Texas... 
near Childress and another center over northwest Mexico/northern 
Baja California. Remnants of Dolly expected to continue near El Paso... 
possibly moving into south central New Mexico on Sunday. Most of 
convection expected to remain well to our west...however with laps 
analysis showing cape values of 1000 to 1400 j/kg over western 
zones... isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possibly near the 
New Mexico border late this afternoon/early this evening. Another 
mild night tonight with lows in the middle 60s northwest to lower 70s 
off The Caprock. With upper high to remain parked across the 
region...another warm day expected for Sunday with highs from the 
middle to upper 90s on The Caprock and triple digit reading over the 
Low Rolling Plains. 


&& 


Long term... 
models continue to have a hard time with the remnants of Dolly. 
GFS is the outlier as it moves the remnant circulation directly 
over the South Plains. Preponderance of other model data /NAM... 
European model (ecmwf)...Canadian/ all track the circulation just west of the 
forecast area and more towards the northern Texas Panhandle. No 
one model has had a really good handle on what the remnants have 
done so we will pretty much have to go on a day-by-day basis to 
see if there is any continuity to the track. With this in mind... 
decided to increase probability of precipitation to slight chance across the west Monday 
morning as the fringe of the low approaches the area. Slight 
chances probability of precipitation then cover all of the South Plains and Low Rolling 
Plains for Monday night. Feel that the track will be close enough 
to the forecast area to at least provide some difluence aloft and 
dynamic lift over the area to get isolated showers and storms 
going by Monday afternoon. Also increased probability of precipitation Tuesday afternoon 
into low end slight chance should the track actually end up 
further south than the majority of models indicate...and there 
should be enough moisture at the surface for decent instability to 
develop. One other item is that temperatures should be a bit cooler 
Monday and Tuesday if we do keep cloud cover and higher moisture 
levels over the region. 


Middle to latter part of the forecast still up in the air but have 
leaned towards the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian solutions with the ridge 
building back over the region. Latest GFS keeps remnants of Dolly 
floating around North Texas and then strengthens it while moving 
back towards the Permian Basin. Will just have to take a wait and 
see approach to this solution but feel that it is a bit far of a 
reach. Kept warm and dry forecast going through the extended. 


Jordan 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 64 93 64 96 65 / 10 10 10 20 20 
Tulia 68 96 66 97 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Plainview 66 95 68 98 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Levelland 66 96 70 97 69 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Lubbock 69 98 70 97 70 / 0 10 10 10 20 
Denver City 68 97 70 97 72 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Brownfield 66 98 70 98 71 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Childress 73 102 74 102 75 / 0 10 10 0 20 
spur 69 98 72 101 74 / 0 0 10 10 20 
Aspermont 72 100 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


08/14