Weather

391 
fxus64 khgx 261910 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
210 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008 


Short term... 
hot and steamy conditions today should persist into the coming 
week. Surface analysis shows a weak area of high pressure over the 
Gulf contributing to SW surface winds across southeast Texas. Temperatures should 
climb into the upper 90s today and possibly reach 100f in a few 
spots tomorrow. Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depict 
a Stout Ridge aloft centered over North Texas which should remain in 
place for the next couple of days. Subsidence from the ridge 
should keep convection at Bay this afternoon and tomorrow. 


Short range models are fairly consistent with keeping the ridge 
in place through Tue/Wed. There were very little changes made to 
the forecast with no rain chances and hot conditions expected. 
Persistence should be a good forecast for the next couple of 
days. 


&& 


Long term... 
after middle week...medium range models differ some in their 
solutions. The GFS begins to break down the ridge and shift it 
back towards The Rockies. The European model (ecmwf) tends to flatten the ridge 
more but still holds strong through the plains. The Canadian 
model is more in line with the GFS. Given the uncertainty in the 
pattern...think the ridge will hold on through Wednesday so dropped 
probability of precipitation from 20 percent in the previous forecast. The sea breeze may 
be more active with thunderstorm activity Thursday through Sat should 
the ridge break down enough and the cap erodes. The forecast will 
keep 20 probability of precipitation for this part of the forecast mainly for the 
southern 2 thirds of the forecast area. Temperatures may cool 
some but hedged a degree or so warmer than guidance in some areas 
if the ridge holds a little longer. Otherwise middle/upper 90s for 
high temperatures looks good and just a tad warmer than climatology. 


Overpeck/39 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected to persist. Some very patchy fog along 
with some brief MVFR/IFR clouds early in the morning could occur at 
our usual taf sites. Any low stuff that does develop should quickly 
dissipate after sunrise. 42 


&& 


Marine... 
not a whole lot of changes to the forecast as high pressure remains 
in control. Seas should continue to decrease a little more with the 
ridging in place. Generally expect south to southwest winds in a 10 
to 15 knots range during the night and a 5-10 knot range during the 
day. No flags are anticipated. 42 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 75 101 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Houston (iah) 76 99 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Galveston (gls) 82 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...39 
aviation/marine...42