Weather

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fxus64 kama 262301 aaa 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
601 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail with generally light south or southwest winds 
continuing. Big story is whether Dolly will bring rain and thunderstorms 
to the area tonight. There is a potential for this to occur with the 
center of the system moving up through central and eastern New Mexico 
tonight. For now have mentioned cumulonimbus remarks at the kama taf site from 
06z to 12z. Will continue to monitor the situation and update the 
forecast as necessary. 


Kimble 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008/ 


Discussion... 
forecast concerns hinge on precipitation chances the next couple of days. 


Upper ridge continues to hold on strong over the Southern Plains 
although several shortwave troughs rotating around the periphery of the 
ridge has lead to a some weakening of this feature. GOES water vapor 
imagery shows band of moisture associated with the decaying Dolly 
shifting further to the east this afternoon. Some of the 12z model 
runs has latched onto this increase in moisture and brushes some quantitative precipitation forecast 
into the far southwestern portion of the County Warning Area. Regional radar mosaics 
show showers and thunderstorms over the central portion of New Mexico 
at this time. Although none of these showers look to affect the western 
portions of the panhandles anytime soon...went and left in the sliver 
of probability of precipitation in the far southwest Texas Panhandle tonight. 


Model guidance indicates not a whole lot of change with this 
unseasonable large amplitude upper air pattern...although they differ 
on the placement of any precipitation that will affect the panhandles. 
The Euro is more aggressive as it shows the remnants of Dolly moving west 
and then northeast toward Kansas while the GFS shunts the precipitation 
further to the south. Given these model uncertainties...didn/T make a 
whole lot of changes to probability of precipitation although did spread mention of probability of precipitation a 
bit further into the panhandles Sun night with moisture pushing a 
little further to the east. Upper trough is expected to slowly track 
across the plains and will increase our precipitation chances Monday night and 
again Tuesday night. Remainder of the forecast was essentially untouched 
with ridge near the area. 


In terms of temperatures...highs the next couple of days will climb well 
into the 90s with even some areas touching into the century mark 
once again. 


Clk 


Fire weather... 
although above normal temperatures will continue the next several 
days...fire weather concerns are expected to remain low as daytime 
relative humidities continue at or above 20 percent. In addition 
southerly 20 foot winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour are expected. 


Clk 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


13/02