Weather

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fxus64 ksjt 072017 
afdsjt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas 
317 PM CDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Short term... 
the moisture left over from tropical system Edouard combined with 
instability from daytime heating has resulted in scattered showers 
and thunderstorms this afternoon across the Big Country. 




One of the challenges of the forecast is the southward progression 
of a front on Friday...the front is currently located across the 
Southern Plains. The main question is will this front make it south 
of the Red River valley on Friday...which is what the NAM is showing 
while the GFS keeps the front north of the Red River. If the NAM is 
correct then the northern Big Country may see some precipitation 
Friday afternoon and evening. As of now am not convinced the front 
will push south of the Red River valley...so kept only 15 to 20 probability of precipitation 
across the northeastern Big Country and warmed afternoon highs into 
the upper 90s and lows 100s. However if more convection develops 
along the front...it may push farther south than current thinking. 




Long term... 
the upper level pattern into early next week remains the same with 
a trough across the eastern United States and a ridge across the 
western United States....resulting in afternoon highs reaching the 
upper 90s to low 100s by Sunday across west central Texas. The 
models show an upper level trough moving into Pacific northwest late 
this weekend and as the trough moves east ... ridges flattens 
out allowing for a cold front to move across west central Texas 
early next week...then the upper level ridge rebuilds in across 
western United States. The models have the cold front moving south 
into the Big Country Monday afternoon and...with convection 
developing along the front...the European model (ecmwf) has the front moving in 
earlier and moving south to the Interstate 10 corridor. The GFS has 
the front stalling across the Big Country. The European model (ecmwf) has much more 
convection than the GFS associated the front... am going to keep the 
20 probability of precipitation in the grids for Monday evening into Tuesday morning across 
the Big Country...as middle level moisture will be available for some 
convection to develop along the front...but it is August and fronts 
have a difficult time making it very far south across west central 
Texas this time of year. By midweek the hot and dry conditions 
return across west central Texas. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Abilene 73 95 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 
San Angelo 71 97 73 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Junction 71 97 73 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


20/28