Weather

169 
fxus64 kmeg 071448 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
948 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Skies are mostly cloudy over portions of northeast Arkansas this 
morning due to area of showers which has died out. Temperatures 
have warmed into the 70s across much of the forecast area. Still 
need quite a bit of warming to reach forecast high for today. Will 
leave temperatures alone for now but may need to update later this 
morning. Will send an update to remove mention of fog but no other 
changes are planned at this time. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 731 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Update... 
showers and a few thunderstorms were noted over north central 
Arkansas this morning. The track of the storms would bring them 
into the forecast area over the next hour or two. However there is 
a leading outflow boundary which is weakening the storms rather 
rapidly. A couple of areas in the northwest portions of the 
forecast area could see a few sprinkles for a brief time this 
morning. Also a few areas in NE Arkansas will experience northwest 
winds gusting to 20 miles per hour for a brief time. Will hold off on any 
updates at this time. 


Previous discussion... /issued 320 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Short term...Sunday through Tuesday night 
skies were clear and winds were calm over the middle south this 
morning. Patchy fog has developed across the whole region with 
visibilities ranging from one half mile to greater than 6 miles. 


Fog will dissipate later this morning and give way to mostly clear 
skies. The exception will be over the northern third of the forecast 
area due to cirrus blow off from thunderstorms that developed over 
northeastern Oklahoma early this morning. Another pleasant day for 
the middle south as daytime temperatures will remain below seasonal 
normals. 


Strong northern stream shortwave is prognosticated to drop out of the 
northern rockies Monday. In response...low level winds will become 
southerly and advect in higher dew points through the day Monday and 
into Monday night. Ahead of the associated cold front...the 
atmosphere will become more unstable increasing rain chances Monday 
night into Tuesday. 


The front will make its way through north MS Tuesday night. Thus rain 
chances move farther south and slowly decrease through the night. 


Long term...Wednesday through Saturday 
00z European model (ecmwf) has come into better agreement with the past couple of 
GFS runs with respect to the handling of Hurricane Ike. Long range 
models at this point suggest the landfall would be between Lake 
Charles and Houston Saturday then turning northeast into the middle 
south by Sunday into Monday as it is picked up by an upper level 
trough. Low end probability of precipitation may need to be raised if later runs show 
additional consistency with the tropical activity. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 87 69 90 70 / 10 10 10 20 
mkl 85 58 91 62 / 10 10 10 20 
jbr 85 62 87 64 / 10 10 10 20 
tup 87 62 91 68 / 10 10 10 20 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$