Weather

917 
fxus64 kmrx 111859 
afdmrx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term (tonight through Monday night)...current surface 
analysis shows a large area of high pressure centered over the 
northeast...with a low pressure system off the northern Florida and 
southern Georgia coast. Clouds associated with this low pressure system 
should stay east and south of the forecast area...but some may 
possibly affect southeast Tennessee and southwest NC. Otherwise...an upper- 
level high is prognosticated to build over the southern appalachian region on 
Sunday and Monday...with dry and unseasonably warm conditions 
continuing through Monday night. As for temperatures...will trend towards a 
persistence forecast through Monday night...which is warmer than the 
MOS guidance. With the local air mass not expected to change much 
and an upper-level high building over the forecast area...do not see 
any reason to cool temperatures like what guidance is suggesting. Think 
that the MOS guidance is biased by the change to the cool-season 
equations. 


Long term (tuesday through saturday)...upper ridge remains in place 
into Tuesday. Confidence low for approaching frontal system...but 
models trending slower. Therefore...have remove probability of precipitation for 
Wednesday...with best chance of precipitation Thursday into Thursday night. 
Will leave some lingering low probability of precipitation over eastern mountains on Friday. 
High pressure returns on Saturday. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 61 84 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Knoxville Airport, Tennessee 60 83 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 60 83 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 53 82 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 
&& 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
Virginia...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Damage/mjb