Weather

971 
fxus63 kfsd 060315 
afdfsd 


Area forecast discussion for southeast South Dakota/southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota 
920 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Discussion... 
cold front extending from far northeast reaches of South Dakota into 
south central South Dakota as of 03z will gradually shift east 
overnight. South to southeast flow ahead of the front and increasing 
cloud should help keep temperatures up... and have raised lows 
slightly. Warmest lows will likely be immediately ahead of the 
trough as of 12z Tuesday morning due to weak warm advection and 
enhanced mixing ahead of the front. Therefore...have a strip of 
slightly warmer lows extending from kykn to kmml. /Bt 


&& 
aviation... 
VFR expected through 06z Wednesday. Ceilings bkn100 will spread across the area from 
west to east after 06z with occasionally ceilings bkn060. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
temperatures have warmed into the 30s espec along and S of i90 this 
afternoon...while stubborn 20s hold on over fresh snow covered areas from 
Hon-bkx. Southerly gradient will hold temperatures up tonight ahead of fnt. Some 
disconnection in winds will occur over eastern County Warning Area and lows will likely occur 
before 06z and then hold steady or slowly rise as middle level clouds 
spread in during the night. Will go a little warmer than guidance mainly west of 
i29 and also towards mml. Will not mention any flurries with fnt and 
associated short wave as low levels remain dry. 


Surface low pressure center to pass along the ND/South Dakota border tomorrow after. 
S of the low...mixy west winds will push temperatures above normal with 
highs similar to today. No mentionable chances for measurable 
precipitation tomorrow as the best dynamic will be well to the north and 
moisture very limited. Could squeeze out some flurries or light snow 
showers tomorrow night as a clipper drops across the County Warning Area...but again 
the chances for measurable snow appears very low. 


Bumped up temperatures for the remainder of the week as models 
continue to slowly trend warmer and bulk of Arctic air well to the 
NE...while upper ridge slowly builds east. Probably not warm enough a 
few days...especially Thursday night and Friday which could be quite mild 
should the 12z GFS verify. 


Overall dry through the forecast period...but will see occasional 
chances for measurable precipitation as active upper flow pattern 
continues. Pinning down precipitation placement leaves much to be 
desired given fast and active nwrly flow...but at this time the 
best chances look to be Wednesday night and then Friday. An inch or two of a 
snow is a good bet in a rather narrow band Wednesday night along best wave 
front interaction. NAM places band from around Hon to fsd with the 
GFS more into the MO valley. Only have mention of snow but will have 
to watch as NAM is warm enough to support a brief period of rain or 
freezing rain. Models have been back and forth on the Friday night system with 
respect to the timing and strength of the wave...but certainly Worth 
a mention of precipitation. Again only mentioning snow as precipitation type...but 
enough warm air in advance that could initially be dealing with a 
mix of precipitation. 




&& 


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories... 
South Dakota...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
Iowa...none. 
NE...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Liebl