Weather

614 
fxus62 kgsp 070702 
afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
302 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
dry high pressure will remain in place through today across the 
eastern part of the country. Moisture increases next week as a cold 
front moves through on Wednesday. Another cold front approaches the 
area on Friday while Hurricane Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
weak surface ridging to build into the County warning forecast area in the wake of weak frontal 
passage today. WV loops show drying working southeast into the County warning forecast area aiding 
in diminishment of variable middle-clouds across the Piedmont. Under a 
mostly sunny...100-85h thickness ridging develops north across the 
fthls/Piedmont leading to maximum temperatures this afternoon a couple of 
categories above late Summer normals. Quiet and seasonable weather 
on tap for tonight as lingering surface ridging to maintain dry low level 
northerly flow but cirrus may be on the increase overnight as hi 
level relative humidity quickly advects eastward. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... 
as of 130 am EDT Sunday...high pressure moves off the middle-Atlantic 
coast Monday...resulting in an increasingly moist southeasterly flow across 
the region. Ops models and sref show decent instability across the 
area...but not much in the way of forcing. Will keep chance pop 
confined to the Blue Ridge with the upslope flow...and isolated pop 
elsewhere. Will keep that same pop trend Monday night with the flow 
and low level moisture continuing. Cold front approaches the area 
Tuesday. This brings better forcing and low level convergence. 
Instability actually drops due to lower temperatures from increasing 
clouds. However...models in agreement on increasing precipitation 
chances...so chance pop all areas. The front slowly traverses the area 
Tuesday night with chance pop continuing. Above normal highs Monday drop to 
near normal Tuesday. Nearly steady above normal lows each night. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 
as of 300 am Sunday...Ike remains to our south in the Gulf according 
to the official NHC track and the latest GFS and European model (ecmwf). Both of 
these models take it into the western Gulf by the end of the period. 
It looks like Ike will have little effect on our weather through 
this period. Otherwise...GFS and European model (ecmwf) generally agree that tuesdays 
cold front moves into the area Wednesday and stalls to our south 
with damming high setting up over the northeast Thursday. Some 
drying works in from the north Thursday night. Moisture returns 
Friday as the damming high moves east and southerly flow develops. A cold 
front approaches the area Saturday. GFS ensemble is similar with 
this scenario as well. If this pattern develops...it looks like a 
wet week but without heavy rain. That would certainly be welcome 
given the dry conditions. Below normal highs Wednesday and Thursday rise to 
near normal Friday and Sat. Lows remain nearly steady near normal. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/... 
varying VFR clouds will linger into the early morning hours with 
developing 4-6sm br during the pre-dawn. Guidance still supports 
a period of IFR visibility at kavl. From 13 UTC Onward just scattered VFR level 
clouds will be seen with winds remains less than 10 kts. 


Outlook...isold/sct thunderstorms Monday. Thunderstorms chances increase Tuesday through 
Thursday. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...csh 
near term...csh 
short term...rwh 
long term...rwh 
aviation...csh