Weather

423 
fxus62 kilm 061345 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
935 am EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue to control the weather across the area 
through Wednesday. A storm system will move across the southeastern 
United States Thursday and Friday bringing a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms with it. High pressure will return for the weekend. 




&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 9 am Monday... 
weak height rises and full sunshine will bring a warm afternoon 
despite the NE surface winds...which are normally more associated with 
cold air advection. Forecast soundings show a moist layer 3500-4000ft 
where flat convective cumulus will once again develop on a diurnal 
cycle. The entire boundary layer will moisten tonight as a backdoor 
front sinks in from the north and partly cloudy skies are expected. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
as of 3 am Monday...the focus on the short term will shift to the 
end of the period when a shortwave approaches from the west bringing 
a chance of showers to the region. In what form...an open wave or 
cut off low is one minor issue with timing discrepancies among the 
models the more important issue. 


The GFS and its ensemble members have come into a decent consensus 
with a cutoff system dropping into the Tennessee Valley late 
Wednesday and over Georgia by Thursday morning. The NAM lags behind 
with an open wave at 500mb across western Alabama by Thursday 
morning. Will lean a bit toward the GFS solution and have increased 
probability of precipitation slightly for late Wednesday into Thursday morning keeping all 
values in the chance category. Until then...high pressure will keep 
things nice Tuesday and for most of the day Wednesday. No change to 
temperature forecast as model guidance remains very consistent. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
as of 3 am Monday...have increased probability of precipitation for Thursday maintaining the 
chance category as confidence grows ever so slightly in regards to 
the system. No changes to the remainder of the forecast as heights 
build for the weekend resulting in a warming and drying trend. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/... 
mainly MVFR fog through 13z...becoming VFR. High pressure still in 
control with light northeasterly winds. Winds will become a bit more 
easterly along the coast with the resultant. Light winds overnight 
at the surface will bring fog back into the picture...with all 
terminals having some form of fog/stratus. Will keep MVFR at this 
time. Some stronger winds aloft tomorrow morning may keep fog at Bay 
but will stick with continuity at this point. 


Outlook through Friday...some MVFR fog possible Wednesday morning. 
Low pressure moves into South Carolina Thursday...with widespread 
showers expected through Friday. Ceilings/visible will be MVFR 
predominately...with some IFR through Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 9 am Monday... 
pushed back the timing and strength of the NE cool surge late in the 
period. The 06z WRF has suggested that most of the higher winds and seas 
will now occur after 12z Tuesday. This seems plausible as its maximum 
winds through the near term...a solid 15 knots...are not exceeded by 
the 925mb winds...which may be close to the top of the mixed layer. 
Stronger winds may be located outside of the forecast area where 
gradient is tighter and so some 4 feet seas may still start affecting 
outer waters by daybreak Tuesday...especially near Frying Pan Shoals. 






Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
as of 3 am Monday...the GFS has once again backed off winds somewhat 
for Tuesday with the northeast flow. Will keep inherited wind speeds 
intact as there has been little run to run consistency regarding the 
wind speeds. A range of 15-20 knots will continue and decrease to 
10-15 knots by Wednesday morning. A more easterly flow will develop 
Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east with the 
approaching Mississippi Valley system. Seas will continue to flirt 
with flag criteria. 


Long term /Wednesday through Thursday/... 
as of 3 am Monday...no changes to the extended coastal waters 
forecast this morning. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...shk 
near term...mbb 
short term...shk 
long term...shk 
aviation...dl