Weather

053 
fxus62 kcae 212328 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
728 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the 
north...while ts Fay begins its slow trek westward through 
northern Florida and southern Georgia through Friday. The 
pressure gradient between these two systems will cause breezy 
conditions in the forecast area through Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
updated...based on radar trends will lower probability of precipitation across the region. 
Best moisture flux should remain just south or east of the region 
through overnight period. Will keep chance probability of precipitation southeast 
midlands/csra but lower to slight chance cae area. No other 
changes at this time. 


Previous discussion...satellite and radar imagery appear to show ts Fay 
beginning a westward movement this afternoon. We will still be 
influenced by ts Fay to the south and an area of high pressure off 
to the north. Outer rain bands associated with Fay will continue 
to move inland off the Atlantic overnight. Best rain chances will 
be across the south...with mainly showers expected. Winds will 
continue to remain strong this evening...so will continue with 
Current Lake Wind Advisory until midnight. Although winds should 
slacken off a little after midnight...they will still remain gusty 
at times. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/... 
most model guidance continues to show tight surface pressure 
gradient and strong surface winds tomorrow. Another lwa will be 
needed Friday from late morning into the evening. Southern 
counties will continue to have higher rain chances both Friday and 
Saturday. Fay should begin moving far enough away from region by 
Saturday night so that its influences our weather will diminish. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
weak upper level ridging will remain over the region through the 
middle of next week. Probability of precipitation will remain low into the 
week...increasing into the chance category by the middle of the 
week. Temperatures will remain near climatology. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/... 
as T.S. Fay begins to slowly move west across North Florida the 
pressure gradient over the midlands will remain strong through 
much of the period. Expect winds to remain around 10 to 15 knots 
overnight and increase early Friday morning through the day with 
gusts to near 25 knots. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop again 
tonight after 05z ags/dnl and by 09z cae/cub/dnl as weak upslope 
winds persist. Ceilings will gradually rise through the middle and 
late morning hours on Friday and become low VFR by 17z most 
locations. There again could be some isolated showers around but 
will not be included in this set of tafs. 


Extended period...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into 
Saturday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through 
Monday with possible MVFR conditions returning as the remnants of 
Fay approach the area Tuesday into Wednesday. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for scz015-016- 
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM EDT Friday for scz015-016- 
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. 
Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for gaz040- 
063>065-077. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 9 PM EDT Friday for gaz040- 
063>065-077. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term... 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation...