Weather

879 
fxus62 kgsp 280717 
afdgsp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 
317 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
the remnants of Fay will slowly track across the upper Ohio River 
valley today. A cold front will approach the southern Appalachians 
from the northwest on Friday...then cross our area over the weekend. 
High pressure builds in from the northwest early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
remnant low of Fay will track NE of County Warning Area today. A weak short wave 
moving into the area should be enough for scattered showers across NC and 
more isolated convection over SC and NE Georgia this morning. A few thunderstorms are 
possible this afternoon. Winds will be generally light. Look for high temperatures 
in the m80s S County Warning Area...around 80 north...with mostly 70s in the mountains 
chance of convection will decrease with cooling this evening and morning 
lows will cool into the m60s...with m50s-l60s mountains 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
as of 2 am EDT Thursday...weak upper level troughing will remain 
over the southern Appalachians Friday and Saturday as the upper 
pattern remains blocked of the Canadian Maritimes...then a upper 
ridge will begin to advance toward the mountains on Saturday night 
as The Block weakens. A cold front will approach from the west on 
Friday and Friday night...but with limited moisture along the 
boundary...and even less ahead of it. Guidance probability of precipitation are quite 
low...and chance probability of precipitation will be restricted to the NC mountains...with 
slight chance probability of precipitation to the east. The front crosses the area on 
Saturday and Saturday night...when chance probability of precipitation will be expanded to 
cover much of the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to warm 
ahead of the front as heights rise aloft. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
as of 2 am EDT Thursday...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in general agreement 
in breaking down the Atlantic block off the Canadian Maritimes 
early...and close off an upper low southeast of Cape Cod. Large 
differences appear with respect to this low...but both have a ridge 
upstream over the Appalachians. HPC favored the European model (ecmwf) solutions 
yesterday...trending toward an European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean farther out in 
time. This agrees quite well with the latest GFS run over the 
eastern third of the nation. 


Our area will be on the southern edge of a dry surface ridge Sunday 
through Wednesday...with a stationary front near the Gulf 
Coast...and tropical system Gustav traversing the northeast Gulf 
from east to west. Temperatures will near normal...as cold advection 
in the dry surface ridge is weak at best...and we are under an 
upper ridge. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/... 
as band of convection tracks NE...low clouds and fog will continue 
to develop overnight. IFR conditions should slowly improve to MVFR 
after daybreak...VFR generally by noon. Winds stay light. Although 
there is a chnce of showers/thunderstorms this afternoon new guidance shows it too 
low to mention in tafs at this time. 


Outlook...early morning fog/stratus with slight to low chance of 
mainly diurnal convection each day. 


&& 


Gsp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
NC...none. 
SC...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jat 
near term...rb 
short term...jat 
long term...jat 
aviation...rb