Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
405 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure dominates our weather through the end of this week. A 
cold front should cross southern New England Saturday night into Sunday 
morning. This should be followed by another high pressure from Canada 
early next week providing dry and seasonable weather. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
high thin clouds have pushed across most of the region as seen on 
latest infrared satellite loop after eclipse. However...the rain is well west 
of the region...over western New York/PA to the Middle Atlantic States. High pressure 
ridge remains across New England...which will continue to protect 
the region through today. 


Winds will shift to NE-east as the high starts to push NE into Maine... 
but the ridge axis will remain over New England. So...expect dry 
weather with wispy high clouds through the day. Highs will be a tad 
warmer than yesterday...still mainly in the 70s with a couple of 80 
degree readings. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/... 
tonight...high pressure ridge continues across New England...though will 
start to push east overnight. With onshore flow...overnight lows will 
not be quite as low as last couple of days along with slowly 
increasing humidity. Some models do try to bring in low clouds along 
the coast with onshore flow...along with cutoff low S of Nova 
Scotia. Have mentioned possibility in a couple of coastal Airport 
locations. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s. 


Friday...the ridge finally breaks down during the day. Models 
continue to keep precipitation west of the region. A front begins to approach 
out of the eastern Great Lakes as winds begin to shift to se-S. 
Clouds will thicken during the day especially along the coast...but 
it should remain dry. Highs will once again be in the 70s...though a 
few degrees cooler than today due to the cloud cover. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
28/00z model suite coming into better agreement with their handling 
of the synoptic features. Not much going on during this 
period...except for the passage of a cold front Saturday night into 
Sunday. Otherwise...a pair of high pressures will combine to provide 
dry...seasonable weather. Used a blend of the GFS and NAM through 
Saturday night...then switched to a blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf). 


Confidence is decreasing in the potential for showers and 
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Both the GFS and NAM 
depict a substantial middle level cap around 600 mb. It is still too 
early to rule thunder out completely just yet. A small increase in 
dew points could provide enough instability to overcome the cap. 
Another factor against thunder is the timing of the front itself. A 
nighttime arrival will not sync with the peak heating of the day. 
This situation is still evolving...and this timing may change 
slightly in future forecasts. 


Main effects from a low pressure south of Nova Scotia should remain 
offshore. While there is still potential for 4 feet swells to impact 
the East Coast of Massachusetts Friday night into Saturday..not overly concerned 
about the potential for rip currents at the moment. 


MOS temperatures are reasonable...so used the latest guidance to 
tweak previous forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/... 
today...VFR. 


Tonight...VFR. Local MVFR visibilities in patchy fog after midnight. 


Friday...local MVFR visibilities in patchy early morning...improving by 
14z. Otherwise VFR. Expect ceilings at or above 12kft. 


Outlook...Friday through Monday... 


Friday night...VFR. 


Saturday and Saturday night...VFR to start...then MVFR in scattered 
showers/thunderstorms from afternoon into the night. Patches of IFR/MVFR in 
nighttime fog/stratus also a possibility. 


Sunday...improving to VFR by afternoon. 


Sunday night and Monday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
today and tonight...expect NE winds at 15 knots or less with highest 
wind on the far east waters. Seas will be up to 4 feet. NE swells from 
stationary low pressure S of Nova Scotia will could bring seas up to 5 
feet on the far outer waters. 


Friday...NE winds will shift to east as ridge shifts into Maine and the 
Maritimes. Seas will remain at 4 feet or less. 


Outlook...Friday night through Monday... 


Relatively light winds and seas prevail through this portion of the 
forecast. A low pressure south of Nova Scotia may send 4 feet swells 
toward the outer coastal waters east of Massachusetts Friday night into 
Saturday... but confidence is low. A cold front should cross the 
waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning...providing a chance 
of showers and thunderstorms. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk 
near term...evt 
short term...evt 
long term...Belk 
aviation...evt/Belk 
marine...evt/Belk